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Financial Failure Warning of China Listed Companies

Author: GuoYan
Tutor: ZhangDaoKui
School: Shandong University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Businesses fail warning Logit method Multivariate discriminant analysis k- nearest neighbor method
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 38
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Increasingly large-scale groups for the promotion of listed companies to establish and improve the modern enterprise system, to achieve optimal allocation of resources and the deepening economic reform has played an important role. With the international financial markets increasingly close ties, as well as the gradual deepening of China's securities market and the expansion of financial activities, the listed company is facing increasing competition and market uncertainty, and thus increase the likelihood of financial failure occurs. Listed company's financial failure is not only endangering their own survival and development, related to the investors, creditors and other stakeholders interests, but will affect the entire market value of the investment and market confidence. Therefore, the failure of listed companies early warning research is of great significance. Looking at the current corporate financial failure warning studies, mostly using parametric discriminant analysis method, rather than the parameter density estimation in practical applications especially in the economic sphere is rarely applied, although the latter is not difficult concepts or mathematical foundation, but there are nice properties. This article will nonparametric density estimation theory to develop a more comprehensive, application of the more simple k-nearest neighbor method applied to determine the failure of listed companies in the past, and application of a wide range of parameter identification methods were compared. In this paper, China's listed companies for the study, will be defined as a listed company fails ST, selected in 2000 by ST -2009 251 failed companies and their eleven according to certain criteria matched healthy 251 listed companies, were constructed cross-industry, manufacturing and non-manufacturing three research sample groups, businesses fail through early warning research literature commonly used statistical variables and causes of the failure of listed companies and the characteristics were analyzed, selected to reflect various characteristics of listed companies a series of indicator variables, and for each sample and each study group to consider using combinations of variables were the Logit method, multivariate discriminant analysis and k-nearest neighbor discriminant method to establish model for comparative analysis. Through the use of a plurality of the plurality of research methods to model and study sample group comparative analysis found that based on k-nearest neighbor method to establish the discriminant model to determine the effect of proximity and better than the Logit model multivariate discriminant model, better promote the use of capacity; also found that the company failed warning industry factors have a significant impact on research; and by the choice of each model variable statistics, the company failed to establish a better discriminant index system for future study and learn.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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