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A Study of Judging the Evolution State of the Market

Author: ZhangXiao
Tutor: LiHongSong
School: Wuhan University of Science and Technology
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Economic system Investment Ziegler’s principle The evolution status model Policy
CLC: F014.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 6
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In almost every fields of economics, we research the development state of the whole economic system, and the market efficiency. In microeconomics, partial equilibrium theory and general equilibrium are always important fields; In macroeconomics, some problems can reflect the market development status and efficiency from different angle, such as economic development efficiency, unemployment rate, and economic cycle; In finance, market no-arbitrage hypothesis and the theory of efficient-market are always theoretical basis. Say from broad sense, all of these economic theories need to research the development status and efficiency of whole economic market. From the macro perspective, this study will help the government with macroeconomic management; from the micro perspective, this study can help manufacturers to generate a variety of strategies and do the strategic management.With the 2008 global financial and economic crisis, some criticisms against the economic model, such as scientificity, rigor, and practicability, reminding us again that our economic model need a comprehensive self-examination. In this paper, we will use physical method, which is a new approach, to establish economic model, and use this model to describe the market status.In the Chapter II, we consider the investment in the real economy market, and establish two evolution status model by using the Ziegler’s principle in the statistical physics. The models can be used to describe the distribution of investment behavior when the market is in the state of perfect competition and monopoly competition. This means we can use this two models to denote this two kinds of market status. Based on the model in this paper, the distribution of investment behavior obey the BE distribution when the market is in the state of perfect competition, and the distribution of investment behavior obey the MB distribution.Then, based on our analyzing, this two model can also show us how to measure the market efficiency when the market is in the different status, and we can find the way how to control and change the market efficiency by analyze the model. Futhermore, we can get the index of the economic system evolution status: r. If we see the state of perfect competition and monopolistic competition as the upper and lower bounds of a interval which can be called as the interval of the economic system evolution status, the index r can be used to anchor the position where the state of the current market is in this interval.Moreover, this paper will also do the empirical analysis which is necessary in the Chapter IV. The models are reliable based on this analysis, and they are able to be used in the real economy market in the real-world. Then we can find out the status which the current market is near to, and we can make a further judgement by estimating the index of the economic system evolution status.At last, this paper will give some necessary proposals in order to control and change the market efficiency.

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CLC: > Economic > Economics > Basic problems of economics > Sectors of the economy > Commodity production and exchange
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