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Research on Provincial Economic Security Early-Warning Based on Immune-Neural Network

Author: MaXiaoGang
Tutor: HouXiaoXian
School: Anhui University of
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: provincial economic security early-warning immune-nature network
CLC: F127
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 24
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Provincial economic security is integral part of national economic security, withcharacteristics of regional, specificity and sensitivity. China is in a critical transitionperiod in region of economic and social at present, which is a painful, difficult process,full of unknown and challenges. After the financial crisis, while weakening the impactof crisis on China’s successfully,and maintaining economic growth, other issues suchas local credit, local debt and regional imbalance in industrial structure become moreprominent, in this form, it is particularly important to study the provincial economicsecurity situation. By analyzing the provincial economic security, we can determineand predict the trends of development of provincial economic and provide policyreference to the region government. Based on the theory of economic security,Thispaper analysis the particularity of the regional economic security, build a forecastingwarning indicator system on provincial economic security and give empowerment tothe indicators by AHP and factor analysis,and calculate provincial economic securityindex.By setting the judging standard for the regional economic security,weestablished a neural network based on forecasting warning model for regionaleconomic security,using the fuction of prediction and classification of neural networkand used the model forecasting the2010-2011economic security of Anhui Province.The results showed that the local government has a strong regulatory capacity.twoyears later the financial crisis,the economic security of Anhui province is in goodcondition, each indicators showed a positive trends except fiscal-financial indicators.Cronbach’s α coefficient of the provincial economic security system in this paperreached to0.98,all of the KMO values close to or greater than0.7,Chi-square value ofBartlett test is great with the corresponding probability0.00, less than a givenprobability of0.025, indicating a strong consistency and explanatory power. Inaddition, economic security early warning model is advanced by application of neuralnetwork,achieveing the purper of dynamic early warning to province economic security.

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > The local economy
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