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Research on Vacillant TeamReasoning Game Theory with Risk Preference and Differences to Flee

Author: SunChao
Tutor: ZuoLiXin
School: Tsinghua University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: TeamReasoning Differences to Flee Risk Preference Vacillation game
CLC: F224.32
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 15
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Game Theory based on Nash equilibrium is important content of economics.Butbehavior experiment tells us theselfish traditional Nash equilibrium cannotexplainmanyphenomenons. This paper, based on this, has made a research on theTeamReasoning theory, which includes the individual rationality and collectiverationality. According to the vacillation theory and model of Bacharach(1999),playersvacillate between individual and collective rationality influenced by inner states andoutside signals, but it said nearly nothing about what’re the inner and ouside factorsand how do they act. The vacillation because of increased income theory of Smerilliand Alessandra inEast Anglia University has made animprovement, but it considers nolost risk only benefit.So, this paper presents the players’ own Risk Preference, the externalenvironmentalexpanded Income (include risk), Differences to Flee, the threefactors.They are added to the theory and model.And it’s called Vacillant TeamReasoning Game Theory with Risk Preference and Differences to Flee.The actions are(1) making a Risk Preference Function;(2) Incomeattraction and Risk Aversionmakeproportionalfunctions;(3) Add impact factor γofDifferences to Flee tomakeproportional functions, calculate thecompetition coefficientβandcooperationcoeffcient1-β;(4) Add the coefficients to the Vacillant model, we can getthecollective resoning probability.Through experiments design, implement andstatistical analysis, it provedreasonable toadd these factors of rationality.We have sixexperiments,84volunteers, to make sure Risk Preference, expanded Income（includerisk）, and Differences to Flee make sense.The Conclusions:(1) Inthe game, TeamReasoning and I Reasoningboth produceeffect;(2)The vacillation affected by some factors: Risk Preference, expanded Income（include risk）, and Differences to Flee;(3) The players make decisions to increaserevenue, to Risk Aversion,to Flee off Difference;(4)Risk Preference make everyonefacing the same problems made not necessarily the same decision.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods > Operations Research in the economy > Game Theory
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