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Research on Development Route of Chifeng Yulong Airport Based on Passenger and Cargo Demand Forecasting

Author: SunXiaoLi
Tutor: MaoJia
School: Jilin University
Course: Traffic and Transportation Engineering
Keywords: Air cargo Cargo and mail throughput forecast SVR model Regional Aviation
CLC: F562.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 33
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since China’s reform and opening up，China’s civil aviation industry got rapiddevelopment，and profession scale has gradually enlarged. Civil aviation has made thesignificant contributions for our country’s economic development and the continuousimprovement of people’s living standard. The rapid development of the airport hasbrought a lot of problems to airport goods throughput prediction, and has affectedairport planning objectives. It has become an important factor restricting thedevelopment of the airport. This paper analyses the airport goods throughputformation mechanism and influencing factors. According to the specific condition ofinstances of the airport, we adopt a appropriate forecasting model, and forecast thethroughput of the goods at the airportThis paper analyses the airport goods throughput formation mechanism andinfluencing factors. Airport goods throughput forecasting model is discussed。 Forproblems of the Rapid growth in goods or throughput，Operation load serious，and theneed to expand at Chifeng Yulong Airport, this article needs to forecast throughput ofback goods to the airport. Firstly, the basic situation of Chifeng Yulong Airport isanalyzed. The influence factors of the goods or throughput of airport is analyzed usingthe principal component analysis. Main factors that influence the throughput of goodsat the airport are regional economic development situation and the operationalsituation. Afterwards, the throughput of the goods at the airport is forecast usedsupport vector machine (SVM) regression model. ARMA model and econometricmodel is used for validation. The reliability of prediction method and the correctnessof results are proved. Then the future development of Chifeng Yulong Airport isanalyzed. This paper puts forward some Suggestions that the expansion of theChifeng Yulong Airport, development of regional aviation, development of generalaviation and expand the non-aviation business. Finally, the full text is summarizedand prospected.

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Air transport and economic > China 's air transport > Shipping business organization and management
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