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Contradiction between Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China and Policy Recommendation

Author: JieJing
Tutor: QianGuiXia
School: Inner Mongolia University
Course: Regional Economics
Keywords: Raw milk Supply Demand Contradiction
CLC: F426.82
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 177
Quote: 4
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Abstract


In the process of rapid development of the Chinese dairy industry increasingly prominent contradiction of supply and demand of raw milk , raw milk oversupply dairy farmers sell milk difficult \. In this paper, the use of a model of self-sufficiency rate measurement of the economic model , and the prediction model to study the raw milk supply and demand contradiction . Formula of self-sufficiency rate of time-series data and cross-sectional data analysis of the raw milk supply and demand changes , the results show that 14 years :1995- 2008 ,1999- 2006 , an abundant supply of raw milk in 2008 with the remaining the rest of the year the supply is inadequate; short supply in most provinces of raw milk in 2007 , the southern provinces of raw milk supply and demand gap ; oversupply of the northern provinces in 2008 , the southern provinces, gaps still exist . Use of the country 's 28 provinces (municipalities) cross-section data from 2003-2008 , to build an econometric model of the impact of supply and demand , the results show : the raw milk supply changes mainly by feed prices , production costs and profit impact , raw milk demand by enterprises changes in processing capacity , sales revenue, consumption . Gray (Grey) model and gray Markov (Grey-Markov) model to predict the results of future supply and demand of raw milk : raw milk supply and demand gap has expanded each year , worsening . Through the analysis of raw milk supply and demand contradiction to increase regulation of milk and dairy enterprises , the establishment of a sound and reasonable price of raw milk , to coordinate the interests of dairy farmers and enterprises relationship favorable roundabout to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of raw milk measures of the problem , the formation of a stable relationship between supply and demand of raw milk , so as to promote the healthy and stable development of the dairy industry .

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