Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

The Research on Citrus Production Risk in China

Author: HuangSen
Tutor: DaiSiRui
School: Southwestern University
Course: Agricultural Economics and Management
Keywords: Citrus production risk Analysis Assessment Management
CLC: F326.13
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 54
Quote: 0
Read: Download Dissertation

Abstract


Citrus has been playing an important role in economic and social of China. Its production risk is becoming an important practical problem for Citrus producers. In order to solve the problem of citrus production, the theories and methods of citrology, catastrophology, meteorology, geography and economics, are synthetically used for the analysis of the development of citrus industry of citrus, and used for the risk identification, the analysis of risk of disaster occurring and its mechanism, risk assessment and risk management strategies and so on in this research. The thesis puts forward the theoretical analysis framework and empirical analysis model of citrus production risk, and the suggestion of risk management measures.1. The main research contentsThis thesis does a research on citrus production risk in china and contains nine chapters.This thesis defines the basic thought of research background, research scope, research objectives, research contents research methods in the first chapter, and briefly expound the system theory, risk management theory, information diffusion theory, asset specificity theory, and these four theories applied in this research field were analyzed in the second chapter. Then the China citrus industry development and changes in production are analyzed, and the China’s citrus yield grey prediction model is established in the third chapter.In the fourth chapter, this thesis divides Chinese citrus production risk into four categories, namely citrus management decision-making risk, citrus natural disaster risk, technology risk and other risks of citrus citrus respectively. And this thesis also analyzes between agricultural history disaster data and history of citrus yield rate by correlation analysis to identify the category of natural disasters of citrus production. The risk formation, the risk loss and long-term impacts are analized in this chapter.In the fifth chapter, this thesis puts forward the theoretical analysis framework of citrus production risk, and applies this analysis framework to analyze the disaster formation mechanism of4citrus production risks. This paper also analyzes the basic characteristics of citrus risk production.In the sixth chapter and the seventh chapter, four kinds of China citrus production risk are assessed by qualitative and quantitative methods. AHP is introduced to frost damage risk of single risk assessment. Finally, the research builds a comprehensive risk assessment model, and makes comprehensive risk assessments for9main citrus production areas respectively by using the comprehensive utilization of the yield minus deviate index, risk probability, specialization index and efficiency index. Finally, the research makes comprehensive risk regionalization and risk map for9main citrus production areas.In the eighth chapter, the research presents6risk management strategies for the citrus production, and constructs the comprehensive risk management framework of citrus production.In the last chapter, this thesis summarizes the conclusions of the research results, and puts forward some problems that need further study.2. The main research conclusionsThis thesis Analyzes and clears the characteristics of citrus production risk. Compares with the bygone citrus production and annual crops, exposure and vulnerability of citrus production risk is more obvious and more damage. Therefore, citrus production risk is systematic, complexity and high damage risk.This thesis presents innovatively the citrus production risk measurement index and its conceptual model. Citrus production risk system is an open system and is composed of pregnant disaster environment; disaster causing factors and disaster bearing body. Risk occurring and disaster causing are the comprehensive effect of the three factors results. The function system is composed of sensitivity, fatalness, exposure, vulnerability and risk resistance ability. This paper proposes the risk measure index and its conceptual model of citrus production risk as follow:Citrus production risk degree=sensitivity*fatalness*exposure*vulnerability/risk resistance abilityThis thesis constructs the grey prediction models for citrus yield and makes an empirical analysis for the model. This study selects the citrus yield data series from1992to2011of China and nine main citrus producing areas in China, and constructs of grey prediction models for citrus yield of China and nine main citrus producing areas in China respectively, and makes an empirical analysis for these models. The result of an example shows that the prediction and forecasting precision are preferable.This thesis Analyzes and clears the Citrus production risk categories of china. Through the analysis for the types of risk for the whole process of citrus production, and the identification of disaster causing, this paper deems the citrus production risk is divided into four categories, including management and decision-making risk, natural disaster risk, technology risk and other risk such as social risk and pest risk. To identify the natural disaster risk categories, this research also makes a correlation analysis between the agricultural history natural disaster data and citrus history yield minus deviate rate, and gains the major risk category of natural disasters of the national and some citrus production area. This thesis builds innovatively the analysis model of disaster causing mechanism for citrus production risk. The research makes a systematic analysis on the citrus production risk through this model, and makes an analysis for disaster causing mechanism and the judge for the4citrus production risks through5indices which are the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment, fatalness of disaster causing factors, exposure, vulnerability and risk resistance ability of disaster bearing body.This thesis constructs the quantitative assessment model of citrus production risk and makes an empirical analysis for the model.The research makes various quantitative risk assessments by using the model of disaster causing mechanism, the theories of risk management, information diffusion and the methods AHP, yield minus deviate index, specialization index and efficiency index etc.First of all, the research makes a qualitative or quantitative assessment for4kinds of citrus production risk, especially for the quantitative assessment of low temperature frozen risk of4main citrus production areas by using AHP method. Then, the research makes citrus yield risk assessment for9main citrus production areas which belong to the three superiority belts by yield minus deviate index and risk probability methods respectively. Thirdly, the research builds a comprehensive risk assessment model, and makes comprehensive risk assessments for9main citrus production areas respectively by using the comprehensive utilization of the yield minus deviate index, risk probability, specialization index and efficiency index. Finally, the research makes comprehensive risk regionalization and risk map for9main citrus production areas. The comprehensive risk assessment results show that Jiangxi province belongs to citrus production in high risk area, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian and Hunan province belong to citrus production in moderate risk region, Guangxi, Guangdong, Chongqing and Sichuan province belong to citrus production in low risk region.According to the theory of risk management and the analysis of disaster causing mechanism, the research makes immediate impact and long-term development impact evaluation for the citrus production risk. Moreover, the research makes assessment for the possibility, costs, and benefits of risk prevention and avoiding.Based on the analysis, assessment and risk regionalization for the citrus production risk, and based on the practices of risk management of Chinese citrus management department, the research presents6risk management strategies for the citrus production, and constructs the comprehensive risk management framework of citrus production. This study considers that the risk management must implement the whole process of citrus production, and the6strategies including as follow:Firstly, making risk regionalization based on the results of risk assessment, then using risk zoning regionalization guides to the citrus development planning for risk prevention; Secondly, innovating of technology and management and strengthen communication for increase the certainty and reduce the uncertainty, thus reducing the risk probability for risk defusion; Thirdly, strengthen the capacity increasing of disaster bearing bodies for risk resistance or toleration; Fourthly, transferring risk by the citrus industrial insurance for spread risk and compensate loss; Fifthly, positive coping and organizing of emergency relief when the disaster causing, as far as possible to reduce disaster losses; Sixthly, implementing the disaster relief to increase the confidence and capacity of recovery and reconstruction.Finally, the research constructs the citrus production risk comprehensive management framework of citrus production. The risk comprehensive management framework is considered that it will form a run mechanism which including unified leadership, division and cooperation, benefit sharing, shared responsibility through combine the government mechanism and market mechanism close together, and it will construct a citrus production risk comprehensive management system which is all-round, whole process, diversification and integrity. These risk management strategies and the citrus production risk comprehensive management framework of citrus production successfully implemented, it would promote risk prevention efficiently, risk defusion reasonably, emergency relief effectively and risk management long-term and to ensure the healthy development of citrus industry in china.3. Innovation pointsCombined with the citrus production actual and multidisciplinary theories and methods, this thesis puts forward the theoretical analysis framework for citrus production risk.Based on the theoretical analysis framework for citrus risk production, this thesis advises a comprehensive assessment model for citrus production risk and its measure index. According to this model, the thesis makes comprehensive risk assessments and makes comprehensive risk regionalization and risk map for9main citrus production areas.Using the grey forecasting theory and method, the grey forecast model of GM (1,1) is established for the citrus yield of main production areas, and the model is accuracy by model testing. The introduction of AHP to frost damage risk assessment provides a new quantitative risk assessment method.

Related Dissertations

  1. Research on Developmental Strategies of Commercial Fitness Clubs in Nanning Based on SWOT Analysis,G80-05
  2. Research on the Mainframe System of Powder Mixed EDM and the Craft Experiment,TG661
  3. Finite Element Analysis and Structure Optimal Design for Combined Seal at Normal Temperature and Low Temperature,TH136
  4. Simulation Analysis on Temperature Stress of RCC Arch Dam and Its Construction Joints Design Research,TV642.2
  5. Based on Nonliner Finite Element Analysis of the Infilled Wall Frame Structure,TU323.5
  6. Research on the Correlation between Formative Assessment in College EFL Class and Students’ Learning Attitude,H319.3
  7. Poor Scholars in the Tang Dynasty Mentality of,K242
  8. Research on the Optimization of Laser Triangulation Device,TH744.5
  9. The Software Component Modeling Method Based on Feature and Its Application in VMI Management System,TP311.52
  10. The Studies and Establishment of Ready-mixed Concrete Information-guided Price on the Basis of Risk Analysis,F407.92
  11. Study on Green Supply Chain Management Based on Stakeholders Theory,F274
  12. Study on New Product Launch Strategy in Decathlon,F274
  13. Study on Development Risk Analysis and Management of Urban Commercial Residence,F293.35
  14. Design and Implementation of the teaching file management system,TP311.52
  15. Force Online Examination System Design and Implementation,TP311.52
  16. Study on Phylogenetic Diversity and Bioactivity of Symbiotic Fungi of Coral,R284
  17. On Practical Exploration of Construction of Students’ Self-management System,G637
  18. Shandong Province,university research projects Integrated Management Model,G644
  19. Xinjiang Oilfield Ground Construction Cost Indicators and Management Information System Study and Application,F284
  20. The Safety Management Research of R Construction Project Based on PDCA,TU714
  21. Application of Improved Principal Component Analysis Algorithm in Course Construction,G642.4

CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > China 's agricultural economy > Agricultural sector economy > Farming > Horticultural crops
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net  Mobile