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The Study of Enterprise Sustainable Growth Crisis Warning from Financing Respective-taking Example of A-share Listed Companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen

Author: ZhangXuYing
Tutor: ZhangLiPing
School: East China Jiaotong University
Course: Accounting
Keywords: financing the sustainable growth financial crisis discriminant analysis
CLC: F275
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
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Abstract

Along with the rapidly changing economic situation, the importance of financial crisispre-warning continue to highlight, and it becomes essential defensive measures in thedevelopment of enterprise. In theorists, scholars actively studying the financial crisis pre-warning model; in practice, entrepreneurs strive to explore applications for crisis pre-warningmodel. However, the financial crisis pre-warning studies are still unsatisfactory, most scholarsare committed to the establishment of the short-term pre-warning models, and the models arerestricted to the two states of crisis and normal judge. In view of this, combined with thesustainable growth theory, form the perspective of financing, the study make effort toestablish a long-term financial crisis pre-warning model, in order to make the model theearlier forecast and better discriminant accuracy.What the major work the article complete is that: firstly, analysis the background andthe significance of the research, the domestic and international financial crisis pre-warningstatus quo is reviewed, summarized and commented. Based on this, the article comment andideas are proposed. Secondly, describe the concepts and theories of financing, the sustainablegrowth, financial crisis and the financial crisis pre-warning. The reviewing of the study statusof the relationship between the sustainable growth and the financial crisis, the sustainablegrowth and financing, lays the theoretical foundation for the later theoretical analysis. Thirdly,make the definition of the sustainable growth crisis based on the relationship betweenfinancial crisis and the sustainable growth, and makes the proof of establishing the crisismodel from financing perspective feasibility based on the qualitative and quantitative analysisof the relationship between financing and the sustainable growth. Then on the basis oftheoretical analysis, it introduces the financing variables, model selection and researchmethods. The forth part is empirical analysis: first, select31listed companies which aretreated with*ST and St in2010and then controlling assets and industry with the ratio of1:4,select the pairing companies; Second, in pairing companies, in accordance with the earning ofper share with the deduction of non-recurring gains and losses positive for the threeconsecutive years, screen the good samples and the gray samples between good and crisis.Ultimately form3samples which are good, gray and crisis, each consisting of30companies.Thirdly, in accordance with the primary financing variables, respectively select the2006and2007financial data of the samples, and then operate the descriptive analysis, correlation test,discriminant analysis to establish the model. Finally, the interaction verification and back substitution prove the model have better predictions.The results show that the sustainable growth crisis pre-warning model has better predicteffects, and the result T-6forecast is best indicates that the model is more suitable for mediumand long-term crisis pre-warning.

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