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The Risk Assessment Technology on Alien Invasive Species (Solenopsis Invicta, Flaveria Bidentis)

Author: BaiYiZhen
Tutor: LiuFengQuan
School: Nanjing Agricultural College
Course: Plant Pathology
Keywords: Biological invasion AIS risk assessment risk assessment framework on potential distribution
CLC: S451
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 35
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Abstract


Currently the risk assessment of invasive alien species (IAS) is mainly embodied in the probability of introduction, establishment, spread and influence, and risk assessment of establishment of alien invasive species is on the basis of suitability analysis of specific species. It is impossible to test the suitability of the IAS in the novel region by introducing the species into this area, so we could use appropriate to mathematic simulation to predict the suitable area of the species. With the development of applied ecology and information technology, powerful application software has been the key technology to the prediction of potential distribution of species. The implement are widely generalized, such as BIOCLIM、BIOMAPPER、CLIMEX、GAM、GARP、GLM、MAXENT and so on.During the process of the risk assessment of IAS, which model we should choose among different kinds of models? What the standard is? How to evaluate the result produced by different models? Solenopsis invicta Buren is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world by World Conservation Union (IUCN) and chosen as a case study of our risk assessment technology system of IAS to test its application capability, for its present native and invaded distributions are relative well known, its record of introduction and subsequent spread are well documented, and its life history is at least somewhat known in both its native and invaded range. It not only tested the application capability and practicability of our system, but also provided scientific foundation to control S. invicta. Based on the research of species’ distribution, environmental variables and evaluation of predictive result, we select the predict variables which determine the species geographical distribution mostly based on principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis results. Receive operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was employed to evaluate the performance of different models, and based on the assessment results we chose the best model to give the final prediction suitable maps of IAS. The final predictive result can be input the software of geographic information system (ArcGIS) and analyzed, the direct descriptive suitable maps are outputted. Genaral technical principles and patterns were extracted from above risk assessment and then were used to construct the risk assessment framework on potential distribution of IAS. Using the above risk assessment framework, we analyzed the potential geographic distribution of Solenopsis invicta and Flaveria bidentis in China with GARP and CLIMEX models. The results showed that the predictive range of the two models can better fit the actual distribution and the predictive precision of the models were greatly improved. From the results predicted by the two models, the potential distribution of Solenopsis invicta mainly concentrated in China’s south-east, such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Taiwan. The high regions of Flaveria bidentis including Guangdong, Guangxi, Taiwan, Hainan, Fujian, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and so on.The risk assessment on potential distribution of IAS perfected the technology system of the risk assessment of IAS based on our lab’ former framework and provided an essential technical support for us to risk assessment with IAS.

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CLC: > Agricultural Sciences > Plant Protection > Harmful plants and their removal > Weeds
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