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Electricity market bidding behavior of electricity suppliers under random distribution model

Author: LiuWenQiong
Tutor: ZhongBo
School: Chongqing University
Course: Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics
Keywords: Bidding behavior Fuzzy soft set Support Vector Machine Regulatory Random distribution
CLC: F416.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 45
Quote: 0
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Abstract


20 In the 1980s, the world's electricity industry reform swept the world, began a series of market-oriented reforms. Since the introduction of competition mechanism, power suppliers based on their cost of power generation using various strategies offer, with other power suppliers bid to get the maximum profit. In order to obtain bidding power, earn high profits, power generation companies hold left, collusive offer, leading to a shortage of market capacity, much higher than the normal market clearing prices at competitive market prices, or even electricity soaring, triggering power crisis. Therefore, from the perspective of regulatory authority for electricity generation companies conduct in-depth analysis of the overall offer and grasp its variation and human factors produce abnormal bidding behavior of market manipulation is of great practical significance. Bidding behavior of power suppliers mainly by human factors and external factors, although the human factor is driven generators produce abnormal bidding behavior of the main factors, but external factors on the behavior of power suppliers offer can not be ignored, otherwise it will produce biased conclusions , while the existing methods considered less power suppliers offer behavioral factors affecting electricity regulatory authorities can not be analyzed due to human factors have led to abnormal bidding behavior of power suppliers to provide reliable information and therefore must be the same under the influence of external factors generators The overall bidding behavior, eliminate the interference of external factors, but also has real value. So far the bidding behavior of power suppliers existing research is only in some specific indicators of qualitative analysis, but also the lack of power suppliers bidding behavior of the overall distribution of in-depth research. Given the above thesis research methods inadequate electricity regulatory authorities from the perspective of external factors on the observation period cluster analysis of data obtained during observation of external factors on behavior of power suppliers offer classes on the basis of in-depth study of each under the influence of external factors, a class of bidding behavior of power suppliers random distribution. Taking into account external factors thesis ambiguity and uncertainty, using the rise in recent years, handling uncertainty and ambiguity fuzzy soft set of mathematical tools (Fuzzy Soft Sets, referred FSS) that affect the behavior of power suppliers offer data poly external factors type of analysis, then use can better deal with the nonlinear problem of small samples and high dimensional SVM (Support Vector Machines, abbreviated SVM) combined power estimate quote data submitted by each class under the influence of external factors act Generation Company one-dimensional random distribution and quote data by analyzing the characteristics of the one-dimensional random distribution model was extended to two-dimensional random distribution model, the paper and then on the basis of a random distribution by estimating a model how electricity regulatory authorities targeted regulatory power suppliers bidding behavior, and finally the use of electricity market data validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. Experiments show that the proposed model enables thesis supervision departments have electricity generators overall distribution of bidding behavior, revealing and timely regulatory small probability of abnormal bidding behavior of electricity regulatory authorities to effectively monitor and risk prevention provide a new way to make electricity regulation sector to the overall height to ensure the stable operation of the electricity market.

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CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > The world's industrial economy > Industrial sector economy > Electrical and electronics industry > Electricity, motor industry
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