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The Research on Demand and Disruption Risk Management of Supply Chain Based on Stress Testing Method

Author: JiangFen
Tutor: YaoWeiXin
School: Donghua University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management Stress Testing Demand Risk Disruption Risk Risk Assessment
CLC: F274
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 102
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Nowadays, the companies are enjoying low cost and high efficiency with all kinds of interests and competitive advantage in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, the increasingly complex structure of supply chain makes that the enterprises face more risks due to the SCM development of the globalization of lean. Some multinational firms often encountered an internal supply chain not free in the demand and supply, inventory control, customer demand as the uncertainty of contradiction, especially some extreme emergencies occur frequently, leading to the supply chain crisis, to many multinational companies supply chain caused great impact, the supply chain cost increase, operation low efficiency, reduce production ability, declining profits, some enterprise because of its supply chain, the collapse of the failure and suffered huge losses even went bankrupt.In recent years supply chain managers has changed their attitudes with continuous disruptions of the supply chain caused by all kinds of risk events. They not only concern the maximal profit but also pay more attention to the possibility of obtaining expected profit and a variety of risks. Therefore, supply chain risk management has attracted attention in the domestic and foreign academic circles. In this context, it is very important to make corresponding measures to prevent supply chain risk by understanding and preparation to the possible risk scenarios in the future.The pressure testing is an important tool of risk management and also a quantitative analysis method of the risk analysis. The key of this method is to work out how much the research object may loss by evaluation model in hypothetical pressure scenarios. It will help us to reduce the impact when supply chain risk happens, through evaluating risk before occurred. It also makes supply chain managers improve the awareness of risk, reduce the level of risk and realize the goal of enterprise supply chain management.This paper focuses on research on demand risk and disruption risk by using stress test theory. In a virtual supply chain, the writer adopt sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis method firstly, then choose the key indicators and model and set pressure situations, finally provide the suggestions to risk management after analyzing the results of the stress test from mathematical model and simulation model analysis.The main research contents can be summarized in the following aspects:1. Based on the research of the theory of supply chain risk management and the stress test, integrate them and try to build a supply chain system framework2. Analysis on the risk stress test definition and elements, the definition of the test object, the core idea of the stress test, the basic procedure and methods, and test results3. Based on supply chain system framework, expanded the stress theory to specific application level. Respectively took source and result of risk into account, research on single risk-demand risk, and the disruption of the risk caused by a variety of risk factors4. For demand risk stress test, the analysis is made respectively for a supply chain composited by a manufacturer and a retailer, and the other one composited by a manufacturer and two rival retailers. With the change of the quantity, research the profits and the optimal number, the price, the impact on the relationship in the supply chain5. For disruption risk stress test of the studies, the writer construct a supply chain made of a manufacturer and a retailer to analyze supply chain operation cost, service level, the impact. By considering comprehensive risk of the supply and demandThe main innovation points can be summarized as the following three points:1. In the aspect of theory, combined the stress test with and supply chain risk management theory and enriched the latter.2. In the research content, not only considered a single-factor demand risk, and also a disruption risk caused by variety of factors in reality.3. In the specific method of application, demand for risk and disruption risk, the writer construct s supply chain model stress test model and provides ideas and methods for quantitative risk evaluation.

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