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Research on the Risk Evaluation of International Huge Container Ship Investment

Author: MaPengQing
Tutor: ChenGuoQing
School: Shanghai Jiaotong University
Course: Transportation Planning and Management
Keywords: Hugeness container ship investment risk evaluation Monte Carol
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 107
Quote: 2
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Abstract


After the crisis in 2008, the liner companies slowed down the speed of the ships, and changed the number of the operational ships in the route, what’s more, lots of the companies built new ships with the number exactly for a new route. However, the method of risk evaluation for the ship investment limited in single ship, lack of consideration in the fleet level, as well as the liner companies’decision. The research tries to discuss the ship investment with the method integrated with Monte Carol and Decision Tree, at the view point of fleet operation based on the companies’decisions.It was introduced firstly that the back ground, significance of the research and correlative researches about the risk evaluation of ship investment. Secondly, it was briefly mentioned that the characters of risk evaluation for huge container ship investment. Monte Carol and Decision Tree were introduced in the third chapter. A new Simulation Model was built for risk evaluation in the fifth chapter, after unscrambled the risk in the second and fourth chapters and the cost, benefit as well as correlative parameters in the fifth chapter. The objective function of simulation model was Net Present Value, and the net benefit was the decision basis. The relation between growth rate of economy and fleet, and the function how the relation affected the freight rate and charging ratio was briefly introduced, what’s more, the price of fuel based on Singapore 380cst, loan rate based 12 month LIBOR, exchange rate, inflation rate were all considerate. Finally the model simulated through Matlab. What we got was the expected value and probability distribution of NPV which could help us to evaluate risk of the investment. What’s more, the result of deceisions’probability and the probability distribution of fretight rate and charging rate could be used to make the decision more reasonable. All the variances mentioned in the model were supported by sufficient date as well as articles, and the date was tested by certain software.It was an exploratory research about risk evaluation of huge container ship investment, and for the information of whom interested in very research. It could be used in reality after modified.

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