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Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Schedule Risk Based on PERT

Author: LiChunMing
Tutor: DuZhiDa
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Civil Engineering Management
Keywords: Duration risk PERT Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Risk Assessment
CLC: F284
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 219
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Schedule Management is the investment in the project , progress , one of the three quality management goals , schedule delays will lead to a waste of a lot of human, financial and material resources , the catch-up duration is prone to quality problems , progress management has become the core of the project management issues . The uncertainties of the project in a dynamically changing risks that may occur in the future need to accurately predict the schedule due to the lag of the information , make progress management , schedule risk the reasonable evaluation has important . Duration risk assessment is the use of a mathematical description of the uncertainty of the duration risk , with the birth of the fuzzy system theory , the uncertainty of the duration risk has been extended from the probabilistic description of the classic fuzzy description PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique, referred to as PERT) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory are probabilistic description and fuzzy description of the important tools . Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the duration risk , the risk factors to determine based on the project duration , the overall objective for the object commenced the construction period of the project by various activities , so thus determine the risk factors differences in risk factors set too generalizability , does not reflect the different types of activities . In this paper, on the basis of previous studies , on the one hand, to discuss the duration of the risk factors set to change the whole method to determine the risk factors set duration risk as a comprehensive reflection of the uncertainty of the various activities , through the analysis of the various types of reveals layers factors set ; activities of uncertainty given the duration risk on the other hand the the PERT network planning MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) model to explain and re- define the activities of the key index of ACI, activities key index of ACI the uncertainty of the duration of each activity to reflect the actual project duration . Finally, the two -level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based uncertainty analyzes all kinds of activities , and activities key index of the ACI to determine the impact of the uncertainty of the various activities of duration risk , duration risk evaluation model Matlab programming language for the machine operator and verified by examples .

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