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Study on Influence Factors of Overconfidence in Prediction Task

Author: JiangXiaoLian
Tutor: HeGuiBing
School: Zhejiang University
Course: Applied Psychology
Keywords: Overconfidence Preference Familiarity Strategy Personality
CLC: B841
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 26
Quote: 0
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Based on the review of the influence factors of overconfidence literature, this investigation specially explored and examined the individual difference influence by using the second round game of the 2010 World cup soccer game as the experiment materials. The purpose of the study is to compare and analyze the relationship among preference, expertise, familiarity, strategy and personality together with confidence and overconfidence. The data gained by the methods of survey from hundreds of football fans of 6 cities. Data analysis used ANOVA, correlation analysis, regression analysis etc. Results of this study are as follows:1) Experts and novices have no difference in the accuracy of prediction task.2) When the task difficulty is higher, the accuracy decreased; when the familiarity is higher the accuracy increased.3) Preference and familiarity have positive effects on the confidence. When analytical strategy used more, the confidence level increase, when the random strategy number increase confidence decrease.4) People are found more overconfidence under harder working condition, Preference has positive influence on overconfidence while random strategy has negative influence on overconfidence.5) Preference mediated the relationship between familiarity and prediction confidence, while analytical strategy play the same role.

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