|
Land use reflects the mutual influence and interaction of humans and nature is the most direct and close relationship, human, while promoting social and economic development in the use of land, but also caused a change in land cover, and the ecological environment has produced a huge impact. LUCC Core Programme, the International Geosphere - Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) the LUCC in program goal is to promote regional understanding of land use / cover change, especially with model clearly expressed . This area is the main concern is: ① land use / cover changes simulated driving force; ② land use / cover change driven the force analog scale dependent; ③ predict the location of land use / cover changes and volume changes; ④ land use / cover changes in biophysical feedback combination. A number of local and regional case studies, identify and reason cover the relationship between the main variation required spatial and temporal resolution. When the focus to a single area and region, or narrow time range, it will greatly enhance our reasons Cover a detailed understanding of the relationship. To explain the land use / land cover was global change, the need for a wide range of case studies of regional personality. In this paper, Weishan pattern of land use as the research object, using remote sensing images to extract the land use map, combined with easy to rasterize and land use changes mainly affect the driving factor analysis, using logistic regression drawn The correlation coefficient, the target year for land-use demand data with import CLUE-S model to predict the pattern of land use in 2004 and 2014, and the simulation results for multiple verification and evaluation. The research carried out in this paper and the conclusions are as follows: 1, the ecological carrying capacity evaluation of the study area indicate that Weishan 2005 per capita ecological footprint 3.2341hm ~ 2 /, while the actual per capita ecological capacity available only from as 0.2978hm to 2 / person, ecological deficit of up to 2.9363hm ~ 2 / person. The absence of the 2003 and 2004 energy consumption situation, so the ecological footprint of building land and land for fossil fuels is difficult to calculate, in 2003 and 2004, the total ecological footprint can not be drawn. Point of view but from the rest of the four types of land ecological footprint, ecological footprint and has far exceeded the ecological carrying capacity of the land. Thus, the carrying capacity of the region has been difficult to meet the demand of bio-productive land area, the regional ecosystem is very fragile, very prominent contradiction between people and land, the ecological environment has been under increasing pressure, the self-regulating capacity of the ecological environment, the more to the worse. Therefore, the use of model simulations of future land use change, the need to set up ecological protection scenarios, simulation based on reasonable demand for land, in order to effectively alleviate the contradiction of regional development to achieve sustainable development. 2, 1995, 300m, 500m grid simulation land use pattern in 2004, with the actual land utilization status in 2004 for comparison. 300 × 300m grid case, the simulation correct grid number is 16257, 90.32 percent of the total grid number 18000, Po = 0.9032. The Kappa index calculated as 0.8838. In the case of 500 × 500m grid, resulting analog correct raster 5676, accounting for 87.66% of the number 6475 of total raster, Po = 0.8766. The Kappa index calculated as 0.8519. The simulation results of the above two are ideal CLUE-S model can simulate the Weishan land use / land cover change. Grid scale increases to some extent reduce the simulation accuracy. 2014 four kinds 3, 2004 for the initial data simulation needs the context of land use pattern, waters, arable land, construction land, woodland, orchard, unused land ROC index were 0.966,0.891,0.985,0.866,0.922 , 0.989, which because of unused land change is small, so the simulation accuracy. The results show that the pattern of land under the four scenarios there are large differences in space, on the specific number of the main changes are as follows: the first three water area of ??a slight decrease in performance for the reduction of arable land, natural growth scenario and economic development scenarios, land for construction increase, which concentrate on building the land for construction of the latter. Construction land through land optimization scenarios focus on the construction area to reduce, to increase arable land, garden woodland also increased slightly to achieve structural optimization. The ecological protection scenarios: waters and woodland area increased significantly, farmland and construction land are reduced, so the performance of the waters and woodland into farmland and construction land, unused land and garden small changes.
|