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Research on Simulation of Land Use Spatial Pattern in Bayan Country

Author: ChengPan
Tutor: LeiGuoPing
School: Northeast Agricultural University
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: Land use change Simulating the spatial pattern CLUE-S model Bayan
CLC: F301
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 264
Quote: 2
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Abstract


The spatial pattern of land use change scenario simulations to be more comprehensive study of the process of land use and land cover change. Chinese region is vast, significant natural resource endowments and socio-economic development of the regional differences, select a small scale, the typical region as the research object, the establishment of land use change models, can be in-depth analysis of land use spatial and temporal changes in the law, and understanding of the causes of the process and to predict future trends. Bayan County, Heilongjiang Province, is the main grain production areas of its arable land area in 1991 to 2006, a total increase 11612.20hm2, growing larger the rate of decrease of the woodland and the total amount of unused land, soil erosion and other ecological problems This differs from the expense of a large number of economic development in the occupation of cultivated land area. The simulation study provide some reference to the preparation of the study area, land use planning, land development and utilization of policy making, so as to realize the sustainable use of regional land resources through the spatial pattern of land use in the region. In this paper, Bayan County in 1991 and 2006 land use database based data analysis of the study area from 1991 to 2006, land-use change land use dynamic change models, application of ArcGIS spatial analysis capabilities of the software on the pattern of the selected space drivers of change were space quantization selection of the Binary Logistic SPSS software to explain the relationship between the type of spatial pattern of land use and its driving factors and different analog scale farmland, woodland, grassland and unused land space compare the goodness of fit of the pattern simulation model to determine the best analog scale of the study area, the use of CLUE-S model simulation in the study area from 1992 to 2006 spatial pattern of land use changes, using the Kappa index testing its analog effects, and in two kinds of land use demand programs and different model set based on simulated land use spatial pattern of the study area in 2020, changes in spatial pattern, and from 2006 to 2020 were analyzed. The results show that, from 1991 to 2006, Bayan's arable land and other agricultural land, residential and industrial land and other land area continued to increase, declining woodland, grassland, transportation and water conservancy land and unused land area; integrated land use dynamic degrees was 0.53%, the unused annual rate of change of the land; The change led woodland and unused land into arable land; farmland and other land in the growth of the state, other agricultural land, and residential and industrial land presents a balanced posture, other The land is reducing the land use change in a quasi-equilibrium state as a whole. The the best analog scale of the study area of ??300m × 300m. 2006 land use spatial pattern simulated the correct rate of 91.93%, the Kappa index was 0.86, indicating CLUE-S model can successfully simulate the changes in land use spatial pattern of the study area. Different land needs of the program and the model set simulation, simulation more in line with the requirements of the land-use trends and ecological and environmental protection. 2006 to 2020 each land use type room transfer still dominated woodland and unused land to cultivated land; sprawling farmland, resulting in its surrounding areas of woodland, grassland and unused land gradually shrinking, but the speed will drop Grain for Green policy will alleviate the trend of deterioration of the ecological environment.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > Agricultural economic theory > Land Economics
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