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It is two severe social problems that the tertiary industry develops slowly and college graduates are not employed. After the analysis of evolvement of industrial structure, this thesis studys the status of our industrial structure and college graduate’s employment, and concludes that increasing the development of the tertiary industry is a key of promoting college graduate’s employment, then forecasts the quantity of employee in our tertiary industry during "twelve five-year plan". Later, the paper gives some advice about the upgrading of our industrial structure and college graduate’s employment, and analyzes how to relieve pressure of college graduate’s employment by adjustment of industrial structure and development of emerging tertiary industry. The work of this paper is followed:Firstly, the thesis introduces the evolvement of industrial structure, give a conclusion tertiary industry take up higher proportion of industrial structure with the progress of economy. By comparing the elasticity of employment of primary industry, second industry and tertiary industry, we find tertiary industry can be a centre of labor force, emerging teriary industry can be a centre of college graduates. Increasing the development of the tertiary industry, especially Real Estate, Business Services, Information Transmission Industry, Computer Services, Software Industry, Finance, Health Care, Social Security, Social Welfare, Technology Services, a key of promoting college graduate’s employment;Secondly, we collect the quantity of employee in the tertiary industry, make a regression analysis of quantity of employee in the tertiary industry and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product by using EViews software package. After our making a verification on the causality between them by using the Granger Causality Test Method, it is proven that the quantity of employee in the tertiary industry is in positive correlation with Per Capita Gross Domestic Product and there is inherent causality between them, and Per Capita added value Gross Domestic Product is an important driver the increment of employee in the tertiary industry. Then we give an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model, and forecast the quantity of employee in the tertiary industry;Thirdly, we recommend a forecasting model with weights, get every weight of the model by quadratic programming, and give every forecasting value of regression, exponential smooth and gray system a weight, later obtain an accurate one with overcoming demerit by a single forecasting, and forecast the quantity of employee in several emerging branches which is friendly to college graduates,and conclude that it is irrational industrial structure, slow growth of the emerging tertiary industry why college graduates’ job-hunting is unsatisfied;Finally, by comparing our industrial structure with developed country’ one, the thesis get a conclusion that our industrial structure is irrational and the tertiary industry grow slowly,especially emerging tertiary industry, give some policy advice that we should promote college graduates job-hunting by industrial restructuring and fast growth of emerging tertiary industry,such as Real Estate, Business Services, Information Transmission Industry, Computer Services, Software Industry, Finance, Health Care, Social Security, Social Welfare, Technology Services.
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