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China's stock market started to decline in the second half of 2007 , the introduction of stock index futures has become the focus of discussion at the time , after the 2008 financial crisis , and its launch is imminent , April 16, 2010 stock index futures finally everyone 's expectations toward the market . Stock index futures because of their low transaction costs , liquidity indirect , speculative and centralized so that it has \enlarged , and the risk can not be eliminated , but management control , and how to measure and control these risks , and will undoubtedly become a major research topic after the introduction of stock index futures , of both the financial institutions or investors , their risk awareness weak , foreign mature risk management tools have not yet been widespread domestic use, Therefore, when the introduction of index futures , their risk management study has important theoretical and practical significance . VaR theory , the use of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis , qualitative and quantitative analysis , comparative analysis , and statistical models and other methods specific study of the risk of China 's stock index futures . VaR analysis of defects , adding GARCH model and extreme value theory constructed GARCH-GPD-VaR model more realistic characteristics of financial markets , followed by select October 25, 2006 to 2010 , October 24 , the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 as a replacement of the stock index futures , index of 973 data using MAPLE, Matlab, EXCEL and other software process the data , and to test the accuracy of the model , the final results showed that the volatility in the market , such as the financial crisis , 95% of China 's stock index futures market probability can guarantee the maximum loss in the day of not more than 5.2049 % , the absence of volatility , the simulation results show that the probability of 95% can be guaranteed to the maximum loss in the day of not more than 3.887 % , is worth mentioning is that , using spot market data calculated risk value may be less than the actual risk of the futures market . In addition, the paper also studied the unique risks - basis risk of stock index futures , the conclusion that the risks faced by hedgers less than speculators .
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