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Annual Contract Energy Decomposition for Hydropower Plants and Risk Control Study

Author: ChenJiang
Tutor: WuYongGang
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Keywords: Hydropower plants Electricity markets Power quantity decomposition Risk assessment Value at risk (VaR) Risk control
CLC: F224;F426.91
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 13
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Chinese electricity trading market basically include forward contracts transactions and spot transactions. Forward contracts transactions become an important method for avoiding price risk,which also is the main electricity exchange transactions. Be an independent power suppliers, hydropower plant signes the yearly contracts with grid companies according to the forecast of runoff,a large deviation between the actual power generation capacity and the contract quantity of electricity may cause larger economic losses. When actual power generation capacity is bigger, hydropower plant may loss benefit because of the low spot market price; and when the actual power generation capacity is smaller, hydropower plant would be punished because of unable to complete power contract.When declare annual contracts power, plant should formulate rational marketing strategies according to the uncertainty of spot market price and runoff to control the risk effectively. This article focuses on this problem and have achieved some results.This paper firstly introduces the current worldwide hydropower participation of electricity market operation and development trend, analyzes the particularity of hydropower participation power market and the worldwide research status. From the angle of risk management, this paper also introduces several measurement method of the risk assessment and basic strategy of risk control,which is the foundation in the following parts.To determine the annual contracts and month decomposition under the risk control target is the most important part of this paper. Risk measurement model is builted through the year expected revenue and VaR(Value at Risk) method,which can reflect the risk control goals of plant intuitively and comprehensively. Considering the risk attitude to prediction of electricity price and runoff, putting risk control target as constraints,then hydropower electricity division annual contract risk control model is established and put the annual maximum profit in contract trading market and the stock market as the objective function. By using genetic algorithm to solve the model, annual hydropower quantity,month hydropower quantity and the proportion of months contract power etc can be obtained.It has been proved by case that the method in this paper proposed matches the truth, quantitatively reflects hydropower manufacturers of risk control goals,which provided an efficient and feasible path and method for making power allocation strategies in contract trading market and the stock market and the risk control.

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