Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

Annual Contract Energy Decomposition for Hydropower Plants and Risk Control Study

Author: ChenJiang
Tutor: WuYongGang
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Keywords: Hydropower plants Electricity markets Power quantity decomposition Risk assessment Value at risk (VaR) Risk control
CLC: F224;F426.91
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 13
Quote: 0
Read: Download Dissertation


Chinese electricity trading market basically include forward contracts transactions and spot transactions. Forward contracts transactions become an important method for avoiding price risk,which also is the main electricity exchange transactions. Be an independent power suppliers, hydropower plant signes the yearly contracts with grid companies according to the forecast of runoff,a large deviation between the actual power generation capacity and the contract quantity of electricity may cause larger economic losses. When actual power generation capacity is bigger, hydropower plant may loss benefit because of the low spot market price; and when the actual power generation capacity is smaller, hydropower plant would be punished because of unable to complete power contract.When declare annual contracts power, plant should formulate rational marketing strategies according to the uncertainty of spot market price and runoff to control the risk effectively. This article focuses on this problem and have achieved some results.This paper firstly introduces the current worldwide hydropower participation of electricity market operation and development trend, analyzes the particularity of hydropower participation power market and the worldwide research status. From the angle of risk management, this paper also introduces several measurement method of the risk assessment and basic strategy of risk control,which is the foundation in the following parts.To determine the annual contracts and month decomposition under the risk control target is the most important part of this paper. Risk measurement model is builted through the year expected revenue and VaR(Value at Risk) method,which can reflect the risk control goals of plant intuitively and comprehensively. Considering the risk attitude to prediction of electricity price and runoff, putting risk control target as constraints,then hydropower electricity division annual contract risk control model is established and put the annual maximum profit in contract trading market and the stock market as the objective function. By using genetic algorithm to solve the model, annual hydropower quantity,month hydropower quantity and the proportion of months contract power etc can be obtained.It has been proved by case that the method in this paper proposed matches the truth, quantitatively reflects hydropower manufacturers of risk control goals,which provided an efficient and feasible path and method for making power allocation strategies in contract trading market and the stock market and the risk control.

Related Dissertations

  1. Health Risk Assessment of a Brownfield Contaminated by Volatile Chlorinated Hydrocarbons and Study on Screening of Remediation Technique,X820.4
  2. Health-based and Ecological Risk Assessment of Contaminated Sites,X820.4
  3. Open pit production accidents studied because of the risk management measures,TD771
  4. The Prediction of Potential Suitable Distributions and Risk Assessment of the Alien Invasive Plant Flaveria Bidentis(L.) in China,S451
  5. Biotypes of Bemisia Tabaci and Resistance Risk Assessment on B Biotype to Pyriproxyfen in XinJiang,S433
  6. The Workout of Atmospheric Environmental Risk Prediction Software,TP311.52
  7. The Heavy Metals Distribution Characteristics and Risky Evaluations of Farmland Soils-Crops Around Different Types of Chemical Industrial Park,X833
  8. Copula-EGARCH-Kernel Density Estimation Model and Its Application,O211.3
  9. The Research and Construction of Ecological Risk Assessment and Warning Manage System in Typical Oilfield,X826
  10. Research of Contaminated Site Investigation and Assessment Information System for Soil,X825
  11. Risk Assessment & Spatial Distribution of Soil Nutrients and Heavy Metal in Fenhe Reservoir Surrounding,S158
  12. Xinzhou Naoyang Event Risk Management,G852.9
  13. Students' Survival Training risk management theory and empirical research,G807.4
  14. Offshore oil platform construction phase Operational Risk Management Research,F426.22
  15. Mine water inrush investigation Risk Assessment,TD745
  16. Jizhong Energy AG mine safety risk control management system research,X936
  17. Chemical Industrial Park Environmental Risk Management Technology Source,X327
  18. Publishing credit Credit Risk Control Problem,G231-F
  19. The Research of Pledge Supervision Risk Control in Inventory Financing,F259.27
  20. BOT financing risk assessment method based on fault tree study,F283
  21. The Credit Risk Analysis and Business Monitor in China Merchants Bank,F224.32

CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > China Industrial Economy > Industrial sector economy
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net  Mobile