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Study on the Factors Which Affecting the Accuracy of China’s Securities Analysts Earnings Forecasts

Author: QiJia
Tutor: ZhuQingXiang
School: Yanshan University
Course: Accounting
Keywords: Securities analysts Earnings forecasts Accuracy Correlation Regression Analysis
CLC: F832.51
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 248
Quote: 0
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The main purpose of this paper is to deepen Securities analyst of Securities Analysts' earnings forecasts , prompting investors to better understand and use the securities analyst research report . The combination of normative and empirical combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods , Analysis of the causes of the earnings forecast deviation and come up with strategies to provide the basis for strengthening Securities analyst team building, to promote the healthy development of China's securities market . First, the information content of accounting earnings at home and abroad and prediction research literature review , On this basis , the opportunity to study in this article . Secondly , we defined the concept of Securities analyst earnings forecasts on the characteristics of the Securities analyst earnings forecasts , analysis of Securities Analysts' earnings forecasts status quo and existing problems , and are classified summary of factors that affect the securities analyst earnings forecast accuracy . Once again, the analysis of the causes of the earnings forecast deviation , propose hypothesis on the basis of empirical test , the use of linear regression model accuracy factors affecting earnings forecasts . The results show that : China 's Securities analyst earnings forecasts optimistic deviation and deviation is significantly greater than the loss forecast optimistic forecast for profit company . Select the median or mean as the consensus forecast will affect the judgment of the Securities analyst prediction error results , thereby affecting the securities analyst forecast accuracy considerations . The median consensus forecasts predict that the deviation is less than the mean as consensus forecasts forecast deviation . Predicted standard deviation and the company profit and loss situation and forecast accuracy is a significant positive correlation between the rate of change of the stock price index and the stock market factors and prediction accuracy significantly negatively correlated . Finally, it is proposed to increase the quality of Securities analyst earnings forecasts countermeasures . Based on the use of empirical analysis conclusions , pointing out that the impact at this stage the Securities analyst earnings forecast accuracy , and presents the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions .

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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