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The Study on Relationship between China’s Oil Consumption and Economic Growth

Author: ZengJingJing
Tutor: PengSiJun
School: Wuhan University of Technology
Course: Applied Mathematics
Keywords: Cointegration test Granger causality Economic growth
CLC: F426.22;F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 196
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Abstract


In social development , economic growth and energy consumption in the study of the relationship between the two will help us to a clearer understanding of the laws of social and economic development , the development of rational economic policies of macro-control , change the mode of economic growth , promote harmonious development of society and sustainable development. In this paper, GDP represented by using time series analysis and Granger causality test theory , an empirical study on the relationship between economic growth and oil consumption , and to explore whether there is Granger causality between oil consumption and economic growth in China and a brief analysis of its causes , but also gives the corresponding economic policy recommendations . Correct and profound understanding of the relationship between oil consumption and economic growth to achieve coordinated development between the two , to accurately grasp the trend of China's energy consumption needs , the development of the energy sector and other sectors of the national economy , the coordinated development of effective measures have significance. Around this problem, this paper first analyzes of total oil consumption and economic growth in the process of China's economic development trends and related factors ; then introduces the econometric analysis of time series , including the basic concepts of time series and stationary random process , ARMA model and the associated parameters estimated ; Granger causality test theory , this paper, the main tool used to analyze the relationship between China's oil consumption and economic development , including unit root test , cointegration test , error correction and causality test a few steps , discussed in detail the mathematical theory ; Finally, the empirical analysis Eviews software within the 1990-2008 sample period of China's economic growth and oil consumption status data , test data first smooth analysis , unit root test, we found that oil consumption and economic growth in the 1990-2008 interval data has a very good first-order stationarity . And then by causality analysis found that oil consumption is Granger cause economic growth , and economic growth is not Granger cause of the oil consumption .

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development
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