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China's industrial sector energy consumption and CO_2 emissions analysis and forecasting

Author: LiZuo
Tutor: MuHaiLin
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Energy and Environmental Engineering
Keywords: Industrial energy consumption LMDI Industrial CO2 emissions
CLC: F205;X24
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 375
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With our continuous improvement of people's living standards as well as the process of industrialization and urbanization is accelerating, China's industrial energy consumption is growing rapidly, with the attendant environmental problems are more prominent, especially in industrial energy consumption due to increasing carbon dioxide emissions increased. Therefore, a reasonable overall planning for our future energy deal with energy, environment and sustainable development issues of great significance. This paper aims on China's industrial energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions resulting from factor analysis, on the basis of forecasts of industrial energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, the government and relevant departments to solve energy and environmental issues to provide a reference. In this thesis, selected industrial GDP, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and the proportion of urban population four factors, using path analysis, analysis of various factors on the impact of China's industrial energy consumption effect. And concluded: Industrial GDP play a major role in decision-making, while the industrial structure of energy consumption plays a major inhibition. Meanwhile, the paper also incorporates gray forecasting methods and partial least squares regression for 2015 and 2020 China's industrial energy consumption for a long-term forecasts. Secondly, we use LMDI decomposition analysis method, select the carbon emission factor, industrial energy consumption structure, industrial energy intensity, industrial share of economic activity, demographic factors, six factors on China's industrial energy consumption from 1999 to 2007 due to CO2 emissions time series decomposition analysis, also selected in 2007 as the national average benchmark for China's regional differences in decomposition analysis. Concluded: Economic development is the increase in industrial CO2 emissions of the main factors, industrial energy intensity reduction is to reduce industrial CO2 emissions of the main factors. Economic development, industrial energy intensity and demographic factors are causing significant difference in various regions of the main factors. CO2 emission coefficient and energy consumption structure present, for each region CO2 emissions have little effect. Finally, according to LMDI decomposition method established industrial carbon dioxide emissions caused by energy consumption prediction model. For reference, energy-saving and low-carbon three kinds of scenarios, the total population, per capita GDP, industrial structure, industrial energy intensity of industrial energy consumption structure of five factors as exogenous data, predicted the country in 2015 and 2020, industrial energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

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