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Monte Carlo simulation of the lightning risk assessment uncertainties discussed VaR

Author: ZhiYaoLing
Tutor: FengMinXue；XiaoWenAn
School: Nanjing University of Information Engineering
Course: Of lightning scientific and technical
Keywords: Lightning Risk Assessment Uncertainty Information Diffusion Interval Estimation Monte Carlo Simulation
CLC: P429
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 132
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Uncertainty is widespread in the real world, leading to uncertainty is becoming increasingly multi-disciplinary study. Many disciplines have been put forward their own uncertainty about the concepts and methods, such as stochastic mathematics concepts and probability calculations, economics concept of risk and uncertainty and risk measurement methods in different fields of study co- uncertainty theory promote further research. Uncertainty is a realistic risk assessment of lightning and widespread phenomenon. Although people have been hoping assessor can draw based on scientific assessment methods to determine the results of the assessment, however, the nature and the lack of randomness inherent risks occurring and their potential consequences of a sufficient amount of information, limiting the risk for lightning awareness. The best evaluators can do, it is only by virtue of historical data and information collected, its own technology and experience, the most likely scenario to make assessment and estimates derived to determine the relative assessment results, therefore, the risk of lightning assessment and uncertainty naturally linked in a certain sense, assessment \Currently, GB/T21714-2 risk assessment methods from the evaluation system and evaluation parameters of view are considered to be reliable, mature kind of lightning strike risk assessment methods, it and other lightning risk assessment methods are based on the assumption that the known information, The findings by a single estimate. The reality, the lightning risk assessment faces meteorological, environmental and many other conditions, including widespread uncertainties affect the accuracy of research. Deterministic approach to study the problem of uncertainty, the reliability of analytical results is questionable, and to some extent limit the development of risk assessment. This breakthrough deterministic, complete information is characterized by the traditional modes of assessment, turn to the realistic background of uncertainty on the lightning risk assessment and risk value parameter uncertainty has been systematically studied. First, the lightning risk assessment uncertainties are outlined, the lightning risk assessment of uncertainty factors classification, aimed at helping people better use assessment evaluation system, and also enables users to better understand the assessment report and the use of evaluation results. Secondly, cited 入蒙特卡罗 simulation technology, the GB / T 21714-2 assessment model extensions applied to different levels of assessment objectives. Combined with Excel modeling, using Crystal Ball (Crystal Ball) analysis software, lightning risk assessment of uncertainty in quantitative analysis a useful attempt and discussion. Again, according to the theory of uncertainty, drawing on fuzzy mathematics and statistics and other related disciplines methods and ideas, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods for lightning risk assessment and risk parameter values ??uncertainties mathematics and statistics Learn description, the conclusion is: You can most likely value at risk (usually with the mean or median) as the estimated value, certain confidence level corresponds to the client's risk attitudes, interval estimation uncertainty range represents the conclusion in actual business promotion, through charts literal interpretation of certain forms attached to the customer. At this point, never deterministic perspective on existing assessment methods were supplemented and improved. Finally, the proposed lightning uncertainty in risk assessment research directions, forming conclusions of this study.

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CLC: > Astronomy,Earth Sciences > Atmospheric science (meteorology ) > Meteorological elements,atmospheric phenomenon > Meteorological disasters
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