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Express also called courier time high demand for transport , express more varied product range , currently in international express market is an oligopoly situation , UPS , FedEx , DHL and TNT international express market Big Four , especially in multinational courier market , the four accounted for 80% of the market share . In this paper, the analysis and combing the courier and express industry , conducted a preliminary study of the four major express delivery giant and international express market structure , the results show that the amount of international express parcel business in international express products showed more obvious Cycles have both long-term growth trend , cyclical fluctuations , trends and seasonal fluctuations in trend . Select a quarter of global cross-border express business data as a research object , the cyclical nature of the analysis and modeling of forecast . During the cyclical nature of the study , this article first apply a moving average technique , multinational courier discriminated cycle , and then take the elements of decomposition and cycle analysis methods in the analysis of time series with the center of the moving average line . In general , the time series may contain a long-term trend of elements of T loop elements C , seasonal changes in elements of S and irregular elements of the I . Seasonal factors using the X12 seasonal adjustment method , seasonal factor S, respectively using the additive model and multiplicative model derived from two different models, up from the absolute and relative amounts of the two dimensions to analyze T ; factor for the long-term trend and cycle elements C ( large cyclical fluctuations ) , we take the HP filter method , the amount of cross-border express business cycle trend factor C was spun off , draw a few more obvious fluctuation cycle , its fluctuations laws have a degree of certainty and understanding . ARIMA model and try to time series modeling , modeling and predict the future trend of the raw data , finalize the ARIMA (3,1,1) (1,1,1) 4 model and by examining the ideal a result that can be used for practical applications and prediction . This study shows that multinational courier market cycle fluctuations , and it a qualitative and quantitative analysis , China 's express delivery companies to enter the international courier market , is its meaning and value in corporate strategic decision-making and operational planning , provide the theoretical basis and guidance .
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