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The transfer of control of listed companies Empirical Study Forecast

Author: YangWei
Tutor: XiaoDuan
School: Jinan University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Control is transferred Target Company Forecast Cumulative abnormal return
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 61
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The transfer of control tend to give excess return target company shareholders , and the difficulty to obtain excess returns is to identify and predict the target company , therefore , predictive control is transferred to the company to obtain excess returns for investors key . Prediction on which control is transferred , existing literature limited to evaluation of the accuracy of prediction models , the lack of effect on the market test of the model , and for investors, the effect on the market test predictive models can be further corroborated significance . Based on this, combing classical theory and related literature at home and abroad , based on the current situation in our country which control is transferred , the transfer of control of the proposed seven basic assumptions and financial indicators and stock attributes from two dimensions selected 30 indicators , the use of a single analysis of variance for 2008 target group target group of samples and the samples were non- significant test , in order to identify the characteristics of the target company . Characterized in identifying the target company basis , establish Logit regression model , the model back to the generation of test accuracy rate of up to 82.8% of total , the model predicts the overall test accuracy was 69.5% , indicating that the model predicted good results , retained earnings per share , cash sales of goods accounted for the main business income , the top five largest shareholding ratio , the proportion of outstanding shares and the net assets of the logarithmic transfer control can be well explained . To further test the predictive model is meaningful for investors , ie, whether the portfolio evaluation can obtain excess returns , the paper predicted target companies such as sample weights to build a portfolio , the study found : Portfolio can all annual reports after 12 months there are at least 10 months to obtain a significant positive cumulative abnormal return , and this excess return may be derived from the value of the target company and the target company shareholders Shell Resources bear higher risk.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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