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The Comprehensive Research of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in Hubei Province

Author: HeHai
Tutor: LiAiJun;HuangShuHong
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Thermal Power Engineering
Keywords: CO2 emission LMDI decomposition analysis input-output analysis scenario approach forecast
CLC: F426.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 98
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Along with the global warming issue getting more and more serious, China faces a greater pressure on energy consumption and environmental problems. As one of the oldest industrial basis of China, Hubei is also an important economically developed province in central China. After a few years of extensive type of industrial development, industry development of Hubei province now gets to the bottleneck: first, total available resources and per-capita resources are both at a critical level; second, environmental pollution keep aggregating; third, facing tremendous environmental loading pressure. So it is emergency to research the energy consumption and CO2 emission issues of Hubei province.The research framework of this paper can be summarized as: First of all, In order to allocate the general situation of Hubei province, nine areas (province or city) are under consideration: Beijing, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and Guangdong. Their CO2 emission, per unit of GDP CO2 emission and per unit of energy consumption CO2 emission from 1990 to 2007 are estimated; Then, 15 years during 1990 and 2005 are separated into three periods, decomposition analysis is used to find out which factors are the most important ones to change the per capital CO2 emission of the nine areas; After that, industrial energy consumption of Hubei province is cut apart into several sections and four energy types, LMDI decomposition analysis is used to consider which factors are the primary causes to every sections’emission change during 1999 and 2007; At last, CO2 emission prediction of Hubei province in 2020, 2035 and 2050 are done based on input-output analysis and scenario approach.Conclusion shows that: general CO2 emission situation of Hubei province is on medium level contrasted with other eight areas, a majority of CO2 emission is from second industry: energy supply section, petrochemical industry section, textile and other light industries section and metallurgical industry section are the biggest emission sections, and the most main factors are industrial scale effect, energy intensity effect and industrial structure effect. According to the predicting outcomes in Hubei province, the energy-saving scenario and the low-carbon scenario can both lowering the primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in the year of 2020, 2035 and 2050 effectively. As a result, Shifting the industrial structure, saving energy from industrial process, constructing energy-efficient constructions, promoting administration capacity of energy conservation and proposing energy-saving to the public are helpful to the Energy saving and emission reduction work of Hubei province in the future.

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