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The Research on the Cointegration and Causality between Land Use Change and Carbon Budget in Changsha City

Author: ZhouJunHui
Tutor: XieBingGeng；LiXiaoQing
School: Hunan Normal University
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: Land use change Carbon budget Cointegration Analysis Causality Changsha
CLC: F301;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 158
Quote: 0
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Abstract

In recent years, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, in particular, is the enhanced greenhouse effect caused by global warming become hot issues of modern geography, environmental studies and ecology and other subjects of mutual concern. In order to explore the impact of human activities on the global carbon cycle, the domestic and foreign academic research made a lot of economic activity and energy consumption, carbon emissions. However, the impact of human activities on the carbon cycle is largely achieved by changing land use patterns, many studies have confirmed that the land use / cover change is an important factor to cause terrestrial carbon cycle process change, but also affect the global an important factor in the carbon cycle. Therefore, to explore the quantitative relationship between the land-use change and the carbon balance of payments, to understand the interaction mechanism of the regional land-use change and the carbon cycle, and provide a theoretical basis for the low-carbon economy for the future land use regulation. The paper selects the rapid economic development in recent years, land-use change Changsha, study area, through econometric model quantitatively calculated Changsha 1996-2009 carbon uptake, carbon emissions, and net carbon emissions, Changsha 14 years carbon sequestration carried out a detailed analysis of the trends of the carbon emissions, and use in recent years, compared with a wide range of applications in the field of socio-economic theory of cointegration analysis of agricultural land carbon uptake in Changsha City, the construction land and carbon emissions, construction sites The analysis of the relationship between the net carbon emissions. Further application on the basis of co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze whether there are long-run equilibrium and dynamic causality between land-use change and carbon budget, the study results show that: (1) Changsha, agricultural cointegration relations, construction land and carbon emissions, construction land and net carbon emissions between cointegration relationship between land carbon uptake and positive for the long-term equilibrium relationship. (2) construction land area of ??short-term changes have a significant impact on the current carbon emissions and net carbon emissions are not, and when construction land area of ??short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship of its reverse mechanism significantly . (3) changes in agricultural land in Changsha and carbon uptake changes between each other; construction of land-use change carbon emissions, and net carbon emissions continued to grow, while the scale of carbon emissions, and net carbon emissions are not construction land change the motivating factor. Based on the above conclusions, in order to achieve the requirements of the development of the construction of the \

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