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The Empirical Study on the Effect of the Change of RMB Exchange Rate on the Export of Zhejiang Province

Author: SiKe
Tutor: ChengHuiFang
School: Zhejiang University of Technology
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Zhejiang Province The real effective exchange rate of RMB Exchange rate fluctuations Export trade
CLC: F752.8;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 105
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The exchange rate is one of the important factors that affect a country 's foreign trade , international trade field researchers generally a matter of concern . Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate in 2005 , excluding the impact of the financial crisis , Zhejiang Province 's foreign trade flows to maintain the rising trend . In order to clarify the impact of exchange rate movements on Zhejiang 's foreign trade , the paper based on the theory of purchasing power parity , the basis of theory of elasticity and the international balance of payments absorption theory , the use of the import and export of data from January 2006 to December 2010 , using qualitative and quantitative phase combination of methods, the RMB exchange rate changes on the export of Zhejiang empirical analysis . In this paper, the object of study and research methods innovation, not only analyzes the impact of exchange rate changes on different industrial exports , and also study its impact on the export of different products . Article first the impact of exchange rate movements on export trade literature comb ; followed by changes in the exchange rate of RMB and Zhejiang Foreign Trade and analyzed the current situation ; Next, on the basis of the establishment of export demand model , using the ADF method , GARCH model estimates Johansen multivariate process variance decomposition method , the RMB exchange rate volatility on the export of foreign trade in Zhejiang Province to the different industries , the impact on exports of different products do empirical analysis of the deep level analysis reveals that : Zhejiang Province, exports and the real effective exchange rate , exchange rate there is cointegration relationship between volatility and trading partner country national income . The important factor to affect the of Zhejiang overall export RMB real effective exchange rate and trade partner of the country 's national income , while the risk of exchange rate fluctuations on exports is very small . Finally, a summary and evaluation concluded on the basis of empirical analysis , policy recommendations , including: continue to optimize foreign trade structure , expand trade space in order to reduce the risk of exchange rate changes .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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