|
With increasing competition of real estate industry and the probability of investment risk increasingly, the backward conception that real estate business based on experience and perceptual judgment has been abandoned. At the same time, the price positioning and risk analysis of development project receive unprecedented attention, at present, about real estate of price positioning and risk quantitative analysis approach isn’t common. So, this article applies the market comparison evaluation approach, on the basis of research achievements that use for reference to the current scholars at home and overseas, through introducing mathematical model to improve the existing methods, establishes the price positioning and risk quantitative analysis approach for real estate development project.In this paper, firstly introduces the basic concepts of real estate prices, price positioning and risk in detail, and deeply analyzes the relative merits to different real estate evaluation approach, chooses to use the market data approach to research the price positioning of real estate. After, summarizes the traditional market data approach existing subjective and arbitrary defects in comparable instance selection, characteristic factors determining weight and determine to appraise real estate prices. Then, by using set pair analysis theory resolves the problems of comparable instance selection and difference factor quantization correction, using the analytic hierarchy process determines the real estate characteristic factors weight, using the fast diminishing weighted formula based on exponential smoothing theory determines to appraise real estate price. On this basis, through the calculated real estate prices, using break even analysis assesses the risk of real estate development projects.Finally, combining the real estate example of Xi’an high-tech zone residential tests and verifies the practical value by using the risk model of price positioning of real estate development project analyzes the example.
|