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An Empirical Research on Assessment of Our National Debt Risk

Author: ZhangHongLi
Tutor: DanFei
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: national debt risk of national debt risk assessment gray component analysis co-integration analysis
CLC: F812.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 144
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since china re-issued national debt in 1981. the scale of national debt grew fast, in which played a significant part promoting economic development. Especially in 1998. in response to the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in1997. to overcome the lack of domestic demand. the macro-control policies converted to the relaxed or expansionary fiscal policy. National debt has played a vital important role in expanding domestic demand, promoting employment and economic growth. While China’s economic situation improved since 2003, investment in some sectors even began to be signs of overheating. CPI index remained strong and Fiscal policy from a positive to stable. Since the outbreak of global financial crisis in 2008, the state began to implement a proactive fiscal policy. During this period, because of the rapid expansion of national debt and less efficient use of bond funds, bond risk become increasingly apparent. As an important tool for regulating the economy, national debt’s risk becomes a hot issue.This article is fully divided into four chapters. PartⅠintroduces the background and significance of this study, expresses the basic framework of the text, and defines the national debt studied in this paper for the central government’s domestic debt. PartⅡfocuses on the meaning, function and development of national debt, and talks about the risk and national debt risk knowledge. PartⅢuses the mathematical and statistical analysis methods to study the empirical analysis about risk assessment of our national debt, which bases on the theory of national debt about qualitative analysis from the perspective of the issuer. First, estimate the quantity risk of national debt using grey component analysis which bases on relevant indicators, and obtains the situation of the quantity risk of national debt in recent years. Second, do co-integration analysis by use of the CPI index and the amount of national debt to make sure whether there is a relationship between national debt and inflation which some scholars debated over in recent years, and assess the financial risk of national debt. Finally, based on national debt funds invest, we make a simple analysis of the using risk of national debt. PartⅣmainly lowers the risk of national debt, gives some relevant suggestions to improve the efficiency of national debt and points out the inadequacies of this article.In this paper. the above analysis gives the following conclusions. Firstly. national debt capacity should be slightly stronger. while weaker debt solvency from the quantity risk of national debt. Though the total risk in a precarious situation. it has an upward trend year after year. Secondly. the currency has many factors, but the national debt in the process plays an important role. Conversely, in recent years. inflation. to some extent. directly or indirectly reflects the quantity risk of national debt. Thirdly, if they can make full use of national debt and improve performance. it can indirectly stimulate the long-term economic development by issuing national debt in appropriate scale.This paper’s main suggestions:This paper’s main suggestions:First, optimize the national debt structure. Second. establish a sinking fund to share the debt risk. Third. optimize the direction of the use of national debt. improve the financial management system. strengthen financial supervision system. and enhance the effectiveness of central government expenditures.Innovations of this paper are the followings:There many articles study the size risk of debt. but few studies take into account the three kind of in the operation of bonds. First. this paper selects year data form1981 to2010. and processes the data by means of Matlab and Excel software. At the same time. we use grey component analysis to evaluate the quantity risk of national debt. which overcomes the principal component analysis’s lack for processing time series data. Second, the evidence of this article is divided into three parts. Making the scale risk of national risk as the entrance, basing the first two parts, and linking the research result of using risk of the national debt concludes that the three kinds of risk existing in the operation of national debt are related with strong internal logic.There are also some shortages of this article:First. when this paper analyzes the size risk of government debt. it only gives the conclusion that the risk of upwards year after year. It does not give a reasonable scale of government bonds. Second, due to my limited capacity. it analyzes the financial risk of national debt only from the national debt to the impact of currency. which has some limitations. In addition, with the national debt’s issue size increases. how much is the impact of debt on the currency in the end. this paper does not draw clear conclusions.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, the state's financial > China's financial > National bonds, bonds, foreign debt
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