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Research of International Development for the Index of Industrial Production

Author: LiuLiJie
Tutor: ZhangYingChun
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Index of Industrial Production the Speed of Industrial Development Compilation of Index Comparative study
CLC: F402.4
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 68
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Whether from the international perspective, or from domestic perspective, industrial production measurement indexes play a pivotal role. The index of industrial production (IIP) is an important index for industrial statistics. With the development of economic and society, a number of underlying and related statistical standards have changed, particularly in recent years, the scope of the IIP the concepts and methodology applied in the original index number manual needed to be updated. In June 2010, the International Workshop on Industrial Statistics was held in Dalian, China. The conference further discussed the revision of the IIP, and eventually released the international publication:International Recommendations for the Index of Industrial Production (2010). What’s the latest situation of the IIP, Whether it has influence to the industrial statistics of China? What’s the difference and connection between the speed of industrial development and the IIP? China how to adapt to the change of international industrial statistics? All these problems remain to be solved. So it is necessary to study the IIP and China’s speed of industrial development comparatively.There are three parts in this paper. The first part is in the background of the international recommendations for the IIP, the different aspects of IIP are introduced and studied. Chapter 2 mainly introduces the concept of the IIP as well as its basic elements. In the chapter 3,1 study how to compile the IIP concretely. During the compiling process, weights and seasonal adjustment are two principal elements, they are studied in the chapter 4and the chapter 5 respectively. In the second part, the issue of the speed of industrial development was studied in the background of China. At the same time, I do comparative study with the IIP. Chapter 6 compares the IIP with the speed of industrial development from angle of concept and theory. The compilation of the speed of Industrial development using the method of index of industrial production" was studied in the chapter 7. Chapter 8 mainly studied the principle and compilation of price index deflation method in China as well as in the world. At the same time, some other methods of computing the speed of industrial development was set forth, such as the method of gross output of fixed price, the method of price margin and so on. In the third part, under the comprehensive background of international and domestic, chapter 9 take the IIP and the speed of industrial development as two independent objects, doing comparative study on the whole.Through all above study, there are some conclusion in this paper. IIP is one of important indicators of industrial statistics used by many different countries under the international background. The speed of industrial development is an industrial statistical index used by China in microcosmic environment. They have many similarities, in term of concept and essence, they are both indicators used to measure the dynamic development of industrial production. Chinese method of " index of industrial production" is corresponding with the international method of the volume extrapolation for IIP. There is no essential difference between the price index deflation method in China and the deflation method for international IIP. But the scope of each one is different with the other one. The scope of the IIP is based on the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) Revision 4(ISIC Rev.4), while the speed of industrial development takes the Classification of National Economic Industries(2002) as the standard of classification. This essentially decides that the speed of industrial development and the IIP are two different statistical indicators. So there is not a strict equivalence relation between them. The IIP is not a simple method to calculate the speed of industrial development.Due to the time and ability is limited, there exist some problems unresolved and some related fields are not in-depth researched.In this paper,I mentioned the monthly IIP, the quarterly IIP and the annual IIP, international statistics department recommends to compile the monthly IIP and the annual IIP according to different situation, whether it is necessary to compile the quarterly IIP? What is the different functions of the IIP with different time span? What is the standards of the time span? In compiling process, when considering the range of weight, it needs to consider the representative products and to focus on growth industries as well as emerging industries. Besides it needs to choose industrial units from the angle of representative product. I did not further discussed about these details in this paper. For the issue of seasonal adjustment, I mainly set forth some concepts and theories, while I do not study in-depth that what is mechanism of the seasonality and that how it affect the time series. Different countries use different software of seasonal adjustment to adjust the raw data. Meanwhile these kinds of software are in a continuous improvement process. China’s statisticians don’t undertake seasonal adjustment, whether it is necessary to adopt theoretical mechanism as well as some suitable software to do seasonal adjustment? All these points are well worth further researching.

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CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > Industrial economic theory > Industrial planning and management system > Industrial statistics
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