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The storm surge from the sea a huge natural disaster phenomena, abnormal movements and wild waves phenomenon means causing the sea due to strong wind, and air pressure sudden changes in tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclone, cyclone fulminant strong weather system. And the normal astronomical tide, especially astronomical tide, high tide, stage superimposed, often will it affect the reach of the sea level rise, the waves destroyed the breakwater, and even sea flooding overflow inland, causing a catastrophe. China mainland countries, is a maritime nation, to the brink of the ocean provides a good natural conditions for China's economic prosperity and social development. 70% of the country's large and medium-sized cities, 50% of the national income distribution in the coastal areas, forming a pattern of coastal development in the mainland. Marine disasters constraints or even destroy the economic construction and social development of the coastal areas. China by the storm surge, storm waves, severe sea ice, sea fog and strong winds at sea marine disasters caused direct economic losses of about $ 500 million a year, about 500 people died. Economic losses to the losses caused by the storm surge on the coast near. The storm surge disasters has become China's first marine disasters. Therefore, research and investigate the storm surge disaster mechanism, timely, accurate prediction of the extent of storm surge hazard for coastal disaster prevention, mitigation is crucial and very necessary. From the 1950s, in order to reduce the loss of life and property of storm surge flooding to bring the world's major coastal countries have established a storm surge of observation, warning and forecasting systems, to carry out the work of storm surge forecasting service. From the 1960s onwards, the China storm surge workers committed to the study of the theory and its forecast of storm surge method, has to establish and gradually improve the theory of the storm surge, and explore possible avenues of research and calculation of storm surge, starting from the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, the success of China's coastal sea storm surge numerical simulation. At present, domestic and outside to Taiwan storm surge disaster forecast, mainly based on the typhoon affecting water increase during the forecast value thus forecast climax bit, then the the local warning level value is compared with the value of the tidal level, if the highest tide level will be reached or exceeded the warning level value, the storm surge disasters will occur and release storm surge disaster forecast or alarm. Otherwise, it is considered no storm surge disaster. Constraints of known information to do a better job of the ocean moisture mitigation efforts to reduce losses caused by disasters, this topic is the standard principle of maximum entropy, Poisson-maximum entropy compound extreme value distribution model, the model is the unknown information maintaining maximum uncertainty, wherein the model contains a plurality of parameters to be determined, so the theory has a very wide adaptability. Taiwan storm surge through the model, the corresponding wave height factor analysis, and compared with the traditional distribution model shows that this method can effectively avoid the a priori during probabilistic characteristics analysis and incorporation of human factors, and information useful life In case of a short, the results of this paper are relatively stable. The proposed method is designed through the analysis of the the typhoon surge disaster has occurred, and other relevant information, to seek the storm surge disaster forecasting methods, and this as a breakthrough, Find typhoon surge the disaster mechanism and forecast, want to be able to accurately locate the strength of its disaster the size of the storm, and accurate early warning of the storm surge that may occur in the future based on existing data, in order to help relevant and timely, appropriate, effective deployment of moisture-proof disaster.
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