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Application of Grey System Theory for Port Container Throughput Forecasting

Author: LiuZhu
Tutor: ZhongJinHong
School: Hefei University of Technology
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Container Throughput Forecast GM (1,1) model Analytic Hierarchy Process
CLC: F550;U691.71
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 279
Quote: 5
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Abstract


The port 's container throughput is affected by various factors , and the mutual relations between the factors constitute a complex nonlinear system , but also changes in intrinsic regularity . Correct understanding of these factors changes and internal relations , grasp the regularity of these factors change , the appropriate choice of model can predict the throughput of the port . Currently , due to the rapid development of the economy of Wuhu Port hinterland , a great variety of macroeconomic policy as well as domestic and international market conditions , forecast container throughput of the port , the choice of both the quantitative analysis and forecasting method predicted conclusion with the status quo gap . Encounter the data distortion problems caused by the shock disturbance for Wuhu Port container throughput forecast process , according to a new interest- priority principle of gray system theory , operators in the use of sequence successfully constructed on the basis of gray sequence , the proposed xi ( 1 ) metabolic GM (1,1) model (n) is the initial condition . The experimental results show that the model significantly improve the prediction accuracy , reasonable predictive value .

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CLC: > Transportation > Waterway transport > Waterway transportation management > Port of work organization > Port handling work indicators > Throughput of the port
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