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The Study on Enterprise’s Compensation Incentive System

Author: SongYunXia
Tutor: HuangRuiFen
School: Ocean University of China
Course: Finance
Keywords: Real Estate Investment Bayesian Theory Expected Profit and Loss Risk Decision Model
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 293
Quote: 3
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The real estate industry in the national economy as a whole system belonging to the leading and basic industry is the leading industry status. The particularity of real estate because of its inherent determine the real estate investment has a long cycle, the large amount of investment, the complex factors with different investment characteristics, these characteristics determine the real estate investment is a high risk investment activities. How to estimate and analyze these risks, it is more accurate to the real estate investment decisions is the urgent need to address the problems faced by real estate investors. This practical problem, a more comprehensive analysis of the risk factors in the real estate investment, and strive to find a more scientific decision-making methods, to reduce the level of risk of the investment decision-making. Various risks faced by real estate investment, but also all kinds of causes of risk, the extent of the consequences of a concrete analysis of these risks is first and foremost a part of the investment decision-making. According to the characteristics of real estate investment, combined with the status quo of China's real estate industry to learn from thinking about the allocation of risk in modern portfolio theory and the capital asset pricing model, the real estate investment process, risk is divided into systematic risk and non-systematic risk and both systematic and detailed risk analysis. Real estate investment decisions involving many factors, affecting a wide range, and these factors have a certain degree of uncertainty, and therefore the real estate investment decision is a risk decision-making. The choice of real estate projects in the program is one of the important decision-making problems of the real estate development process. Real estate investors in the decision-making, based on historical data or personal experience, predict the future real estate market, it is estimated that the direct impact on the economic benefits of a variety of technical and economic data, such as sales price, cost, income, interest rate, duration, etc.. However, projections and estimates, often with a certain degree of subjectivity, does not accurately reflect the objective situation, and thus it may result in a decision-making errors. Real estate Bayesian risk decision-making method can compensate for this defect. It increase the amount of information through market research, to amend the a priori probability, thereby enhancing the decision-makers of the future possibilities grasp, to achieve the purpose of reducing the risk of decision-making. Options actual situation in Handan City, Hebei Province, xx project risk decisions, system analysis, the study concluded, to the medium and small real estate companies on the role of inspiration or reference. The empirical analysis also shows that the Bayesian method can effectively choice of real estate projects in the program, which helps to reduce the pre-project development risks. Bayesian approach provides an effective means of risk prediction, able to combine the subjective estimates and objective estimates, and can continue to predict with the increasing of the data, making prediction more accurate. Finally, we summarize the results of the study analyzes the limitations of real estate investment Bayesian risk decision-making method, pointed out that with the real estate investment market continues to mature and the new theory, the application of new technologies, the method will constantly improve and development, its usefulness will be greatly enhanced.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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