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How Resident Assets Affect Consumption?

Author: ZhangWeiTao
Tutor: YuYiHong
School: Fudan University
Course: Number of economic
Keywords: Residents ' assets Consumption Wealth effect Cointegration
CLC: F124;F126.1
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 205
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Consumer demand, particularly consumer demand growth is weak, has become one of the outstanding problems of restricting China's rapid economic development, to study the economic factors that have an important impact on China's consumer and their associated mechanisms and the role of magnitude is directly related to how to promote household consumption growth and the expansion of domestic demand. In recent years, an important feature of China's macroeconomic, total assets of residents have experienced unprecedented growth, the stock and property markets continuing volatility, the resulting the residents asset volatility continued to increase. How macroeconomic significance of the changes in assets, especially its impact on the consumer, if any affect to what extent, which not only has significant value of economic theory, there are extremely important policy value. In this paper, China's urban residents' consumption, income and assets between macro-quarter data from 1998 to 2007, China's total asset wealth effect exists and that the direction and magnitude of an empirical study. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) there is a stable long-term cointegration relationship and co-integration relationship only residents assets long-run marginal consumption elasticity of 0.51 between China, the consumption of urban residents, income and residents' assets, the wealth effect is significantly exist; (2) the short term, the lack of consumption and income error corrective action, mainly residents of assets, consumption, income and assets, long-run equilibrium system deviation to be adjusted to restore the balance; (3) the pulse response function analysis, we found that residents' assets are the positive impact of one unit of consumption will be continuing with the changes; (4) the variance decomposition analysis shows that residents of changes in assets on consumption changes over time, the contribution will gradually increase. When the residents' assets are classified into financial assets and housing assets, the results show that: (1) there is a stable long-term co-integration relationship between the consumption of urban residents, income, financial assets and housing assets and cointegration relationship only financial assets, long-run marginal consumption elasticity of 0.28, the long-term marginal consumption elasticity of housing assets was 0.56; (2) Short-term financial assets, income, and housing assets have shown large errors corrective actions, and the consumer error correction coefficient relative smaller; (3) the pulse response function analysis, we found that financial assets and housing assets by a unit positive shock, the consumer will continued with the change; (4) Granger causality test, the per capita financial assets growth and per capita consumption growth there is a two-way Granger causality financial assets per capita growth of per capita consumption growth is lagging behind the growth in per capita consumption can quickly lead to changes in the per capita financial assets. Housing assets per capita growth and per capita consumption growth also exist between the two-way Granger causality, and the per capita housing asset growth changes can quickly lead to changes in the per capita consumption growth.

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > People's living conditions > People's consumption level,the structure
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