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Emergency Evacuation System and Simulation in Public

Author: YangLiBing
Tutor: ChenJianHong
School: Central South University
Course: Safety management engineering
Keywords: Emergency evacuation Vulnerability analysis System Dynamics Simulation Evacuation time
CLC: X913
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 619
Quote: 4
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Abstract

In recent years, frequent emergencies around the world, caused huge casualties and property losses to the people and society. China is also an accident, disaster-prone countries, only national security incidents in 2008 there were 413,752 kinds of accidents, the death of 91,172 people, China has in the high incidence of emergencies. Study emergency evacuation problem has urgent need of emergency management and personnel evacuation and other aspects of a systematic and comprehensive analysis and research, forecasting and preparedness occurrence of unexpected events, to reduce casualties and property losses, the maintenance and building a harmonious and stable social has great practical significance and practical value. This thesis from the emergency response capacity and emergency system dynamics The two systematic analysis of the emergency evacuation of an enterprise system to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the Emergency in space distribution and performance characteristics of the emergency system between the various factors inherent relationship between the corresponding countermeasures platform Anylogic established evacuation simulation model, research evacuation process of bottlenecks and other problems, to provide a reference for the emergency evacuation management. Text mainly do the following: 1) elaborated the concept of vulnerability and analytical methods based on existing vulnerabilities in an enterprise security situation and emergency management, for example, from the perspective of security of the seven regions of the 21 categories of The vulnerability indicators expert rating, the use of principal component analysis in enterprise security and emergency management in the regional vulnerability analysis unit vulnerability characteristics and distribution law, and came to the degree of vulnerability of each unit, the use of vulnerability quantitative analysis of enterprise safety assessment, a new quantitative evaluation method for the assessment of contingency plans and emergency response capabilities, conducive to a comprehensive and systematic grasp of the security situation and emergency management capabilities. 2) system dynamics analysis of the emergency management of an enterprise, a clear emergency management systems study to determine the various variables of the emergency management systems, the establishment of causal loop diagrams and flow diagram of the emergency management system of to construct emergency management system model; The simulation results on the degree of risk, emergency macro-effective, pre-control of major accidents income, the cost of day-to-day emergency supplies, the accident results in the following five aspects of the probability of the security personnel in the enterprise emergency management factors role and the role of the corresponding recommendations. 3) emergency evacuation modeling principles, methods, data processing, modeling tools, model operation mechanism, combined with safety-related theoretical knowledge to design through analysis and simulation statistics Anylogic evacuation model and illustrates the modeling ideas and processes; the evacuation time, compared with the theoretical results reflects the advantages of the simulation model, and to explore the evacuation the Anylogic model exists crowding, explain the reason for possible emergency evacuation plan to improve and designers.

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