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Research on Monitoring and Early-warning Mechanisms for the Scale of the Commodity Distribution

Author: WangHuiJuan
Tutor: JiLiangGang
School: Hebei University of Economics
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: Commodity circulation scale Monitoring and early warning system Index system Warning boundaries
CLC: F713
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 54
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The course of economic growth and development of countries show that the fluctuations in the economy is the norm of the growth process . The rapid economic expansion after the inevitable tight with economic contraction , every extraordinary fluctuations will damage the economy , resulting in a waste of resources . And the volatility of the macroeconomic running as the circulation industry fluctuation phenomena in the development process . Based on historical and current data , analysis to decide the size of the circulation of commodities fluctuations endogenous factors and external shocks affect the the circulation scale operational status indicators system monitoring , the establishment of the circulation of commodities - scale early warning mechanism , the future development trend of China's circulation industry make predictions , has important implications for the development of China's circulation industry . This paper uses the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis , a systematic study of the mechanism of monitoring and early warning of the scale of the circulation of commodities . Paper is more comprehensive , in-depth analysis and clarification of the theoretical basis of the study of the circulation of commodities - scale monitoring and early warning model developed method , focusing on in-depth discussions on the selection of indicators of the size of the circulation of commodities warning signs , and to further clarify the first sync and lagging indicators criteria for the classification , the index system of monitoring and early warning system . Using principal component analysis methods based on comprehensive early warning indicators for monitoring and early warning system to determine the size of the circulation of commodities , the same time - scale monitoring and early warning of commodity circulation Starsky determine a more detailed discussion , and the combined signal system to complete the entire early warning model preliminary building . Finally, this paper based on the monitoring and early warning model of commodity circulation in the last fifteen years , the scale of running state , and put forward some preliminary ideas of commodity circulation - scale monitoring and early warning system , but also pointed out that the system both in theory and in application some of the problems still exist , subject to be addressed in future studies .

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > Domestic Trade and Economic > The circulation of commodities and the market
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