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Based on different periods of financial distress of listed companies

Author: ZhenLiNa
Tutor: DingShaoFang
School: North China University of
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Solvency crisis Costs of Financial Distress Cash Flow Logistic Model
CLC: F275
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 162
Quote: 0
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Abstract

End of 2008, the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the world economy have suffered all kinds of different levels of combat, living in the meantime the various companies also suffered cash flow difficulties, dangerous, going to be challenged or even facing bankruptcy. This article as a starting point, the enterprise financial crisis may occur at any solvency crisis separate chapters, as short-term early warning research object, the enterprise financial crisis is another manifestation of consecutive losses as a long-term early warning research object, the formation of this body. The first part of in-depth analysis of the characteristics of the financial crisis and its manifestations on the solvency crisis clearly defined, which is defined in the Shanghai stock market listed companies in the manufacturing sector, access to crisis sample 54, the proportion of 1:1 in the same industry, same size 54 matched normal company. In the predictor variable selection process, characterized by the introduction of more advance information about the cost of financial distress indicators, combined with the solvency crisis indicators of the previous year's cash flow, after factor analysis extracted representative indicators as input variables to establish Logistic regression model. Model has higher prediction accuracy, the study found a shortage of cash flow for the company can predict various indicators. In the second part of the company which was subsequently ST consecutive losses that loss crisis as the research object, this paper considers the crisis compared to losses in the longer term solvency crisis predictable, therefore, this paper in 2007 and in 2008 was first manufactured ST CSI listed companies for the loss of the crisis sample, using its ST-3 ST-1 to a total of three years of financial data with them with the same industry, same size, same period, non-ST listed company's financial data, long-term study. And this part of cash flow information to investigate whether the traditional accounting categories of indicators with incremental information content, take two steps: the first step using only traditional accounting categories of indicators to establish Logistic regression model, the second step is based on this introduction of cash flow information to create a new model, the study found that cash flow information in the ST-2, ST-3 years can effectively improve the model prediction accuracy, indicating loss of cash flow information for the enterprise also has a high predictive value in the early giving instructions during the signal. Finally, the above model to analyze the results, as the article concluded that the enterprise financial crisis management to provide the basis and inspiration.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Enterprise economy > Corporate Financial Management
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