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A Research of East Asian Monetary Cooperation Based on OCA Theory

Author: LiuZuo
Tutor: XiaoHongSheng
School: Shandong University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Optimal currency area Monetary Cooperation East Asia RMB internationalization
CLC: F823.1
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 208
Quote: 1
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Abstract


The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the U.S. and global financial and stock market fluctuations, and it is following the East Asian financial crisis in 1997, the most serious financial turmoil, the crisis has had a tremendous impact on the East Asian economies, and therefore proposed East Asian monetary cooperation to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis has important significance. Since the internal contradictions of the current international monetary system and the inability to overcome the dilemma, international regional currencies founded, the development of international and regional monetary cooperation, to some extent, but also to ease the internal contradictions of the current international monetary system, the existing international monetary system will become a change of trend. Based on the above background, the issue of monetary cooperation in East Asia increasingly subject to the attention of the East Asian countries, a new phase of deeper regional monetary cooperation has become the consensus of most East Asian countries. As a precedent for the success of European monetary integration, to the East Asian countries has brought a lot of confidence. With the deepening of economic exchanges in the countries of East Asia, regional monetary cooperation, and undoubtedly will give the East Asian countries with greater income, by constructing a series of cooperation mechanisms can also play defense in times of crisis and rescue effect. In this context, China should actively participate in the East Asian monetary cooperation and enhance the status of the Renminbi in the East Asian monetary cooperation, thus contributing to the development of China's domestic economic, financial, and enhance the overall economic strength of China. Mondale proposed the theory of optimal currency area (OCA) is based, and select from the the American scholar Ba Youmi (Bayoumi) and Ai-chen Green (Eiehengreen), the optimal currency area (OCA) index method, constructed regression model to analyze and discuss the possibility of cooperation and the path of the East Asian currencies, in their analysis of the framework, this paper collected nine East Asian economies, the macroeconomic data, measurement tools, calculate the coefficient estimates of the regression equation then the predictive value of the dependent variable into the regression equation, find the the OCA index between the East Asian economies. The empirical results show that the degree of interdependence of a number of countries (regions) have similar or higher than the degree of dependence between European countries, these countries (regions) have been close to an optimal currency area, for the formation of a monetary union in East Asia, monetary cooperation in East Asia has encountered many obstacles, such as lack of political base, the economic gap is widening, such as different industrial structure, hysteresis monetary cooperation in East Asia. How to solve such problems, combined with the empirical results, a further description of the path of the feasibility of cooperation in East Asia, the establishment of three sub-regional monetary union and the progressive realization of the three sub-regional monetary union transition to a monetary union, the East Asian currencies cooperation, the key to the integration of East Asian currencies. Pivotal status of China in the East Asian countries, the article last microcosm discussed the trend of China's cooperation in the East Asian currencies, the paper argues that China accelerate the regionalization and internationalization of the RMB to strengthen trade cooperation with other countries in East Asia monetary cooperation in East Asia strategic choice.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency
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