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Empirical analysis of the economic impact of China 's bank credit

Author: WangHongHong
Tutor: LongChao
School: Yunnan University of Finance
Course: Finance
Keywords: Bank credit Economic growth Real estate prices Consumer Price Index
CLC: F832.4;F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 180
Quote: 0
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Abstract


At present the majority of scholars agree that the credit transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China is, China's central bank monetary policy to affect the size of the commercial bank credit to affect consumption and investment activities, ultimately causing the changes in the real economy. In order to verify the effects of bank credit to the real economy, the empirical analysis of the impact on economic growth, the price level, the real estate prices of bank credit. In China, the bank credit has been a major source of funding for our corporate finance, commercial bank loan size limit has been canceled from the People's Bank of China in 1998, China's currency policy from direct regulation to indirect control, independent of commercial banks operating rights enhanced commercial banks loans based on its own operating principles, the bank credit funds to better reflect market supply and demand situation, and therefore this paper, the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2009 data to examine the effect of bank credit impact on the real economy. At the same time, economic growth and stability of the price level is one of China's two major policy goals, the stability of the price level has an important role in the economic development of a country. Uncertain changes in the price level is a huge economic and social destructive: the unexpected prices is likely to cause panic in the people, thus reducing the efficiency of the production, and ultimately reduce the total output; prices but not expected to be able to any distribution of social wealth and weaken the function of money as a measure of value and medium of exchange, resulting in low efficiency of economic operation. Real estate as a pillar industry of China's national economy, the great correlation with economic growth. Bank credit to real estate prices can be transmitted to the real economy through Tobin's q effect and the wealth effect. China's real estate prices continued to rise in recent years, ample liquidity in the economies, there is a lot of liquidity into the real estate market, real estate price bubble initially apparent. As a warning, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States the price bubble real estate market can affect the stability of the entire financial system, eventually causing a huge impact on a country's economy. This selection of economic growth, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and real estate prices as a proxy variable of the health of the real economy, through empirical testing, analysis of the impact of bank credit to the economy. Firstly, build economic variables between the vector autocorrelation model, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method to verify the relationship between economic variables. Johansen cointegration test results show that: the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between bank credit and economic growth, the price level, the real estate prices; Granger causality test results show that: the bank credit Granger cause economic growth and real estate prices; impulse response results show: monetary policy is conducted through the bank lending channel have a positive impact on economic growth, but the effect has a lag of six quarters. A lot of factors that affect economic growth, real estate prices on the contribution to the economic growth rate is relatively high, indicating that the role of investment on economic growth is strong; bank credit has a long-term positive impact the volatility of the price index, but not yet constitute a change in the price level The main reason influencing factors, changes in the consumer price index, its change in its contribution; bank credit to the real estate prices resulting from changes in a positive impact, and real estate price fluctuations caused by factors. Finally, the article in order to maintain steady economic growth and stabilize asset prices should be reasonable to adjust the credit structure and the pace of credit, and provide appropriate policy recommendations for reasonable adjustments to its credit structure and the pace of credit.

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