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An Empirical Research on the Choice of China’s Monetary Policy Intermediary Goals

Author: HuangXiaoYan
Tutor: ZhaoPing
School: Zhejiang Technology and Business University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Money supply Interest rate Intermediate target Correlation Vector error correction model
CLC: F822.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 118
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The selection of intermediate target of monetary policy is an important part of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. As China's economic long-term, sustained and stable development, the financial structure to match the gradual optimization and improvement has also been a fundamental improvement in the degree of economic operation of the market. These changes in the economic and financial field, our central bank traditional monetary policy transmission mechanism is bound to impact on the formation, the effectiveness of the existing monetary policy intermediate target may change. Therefore, revaluation and select appropriate intermediate target of monetary policy has become a key issue of the new situation and monetary policy transmission channels, to improve its overall effectiveness. Firstly, developments and changes in the theory of monetary policy intermediate target selection, as well as domestic and foreign intermediate target practice summarized; intermediate target of monetary policy and money supply and interest rates as the adaptability of the theoretical analysis; then China's monetary policy intermediary The goal of the adaptive research focus on the correlation analysis, building vector error correction model using the quarterly data for the first quarter of 1998-2009, and by the impulse response and variance decomposition technology our money supply and interest rates intermediary indicators empirical correlation with the economic analysis, to come closer than the interest rate of the money supply and macroeconomic conclusions. The article further out of the debate of the money supply and interest rates, which one is better, no longer pegged to any currency and interest rates intermediate target of China's implementation of inflation targeting issues discussed. Concluded at the end of the article, according to this study: At this stage, the interest rate as an intermediate target is not feasible, so China still can not give up the money supply in favor of the interest rate as an intermediate target, the same time, China also do not have to implement conditions of inflation targeting. Based on these conclusions, the article in the level of policy recommendations that, the intermediary target money supply continue to adhere to the same time, the country should take to improve its adaptability effective measures, but also actively promote a market-oriented interest rate reform process, for the future steering interest rate index for the intermediate target of monetary policy operations or comprehensive pegged to inflation, the new monetary policy framework is actively preparing for the implementation of the conditions.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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