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Based on the land-use/cover data which was interpreted from four remote sensing images from 1986 to 2006 of Yongtai County and ecosystem services estimate theory, this study adjusts the related parameters to typical model according to this area’s actual situation, and then builds the improved synthetically estimate model of ecosystem services value and related forecasting model, analysis the dynamic change of ecosystem services value of Yongtai County. The results show that:(1)Land use have remarkable change from 1986 to 2006, the forest land, cultivated land, water and unutilized land decreased; other types have a trend of increasing. (2) During 1986-2006, the total value of ecosystem services decreased from 442.3 million Yuan to 406.6 million Yuan. During1986-2000, it lost 37.6 million Yuan per year. The result indicates that the land use type of 1986-2000 is unreasonable; however, during 2000-2003 and 2003-2006, the value shows the trend of improve. It respective increased 35.5 million Yuan per year and 21.0 million Yuan per year in two periods. The result indicates that the land use type is developing in the right direction. The ecosystem service value was increased in Gaiyang, Changqing, Fukou, Dongyang, Xiaba, Pangu, Hongxing, Danyun, Linglu, Tangqian town, which was decreased in other towns. (3) According to the results of Grey and Markov Method, the total ecosystem service value of 2009,2012,2015 and 2018 is 545.4 million,561.5 million,578.0 million,595.1 million Yuan respectively in Yongtai County.Finally, this study put forward some land-use countermeasures to improve ecosystem service value.
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