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The Quantitative Analysis about the Impact on Transport Demands by the Industrial Structure

Author: NieZhengYing
Tutor: JiangXiuShan
School: Beijing Jiaotong University
Course: Transportation Planning and Management
Keywords: industrial structure transportation demands complete decomposition model
CLC: F121.3;F512
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 315
Quote: 3
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Abstract


Transportation is not only the basis for national economic development, but also the basic conditions of social development and people’s living standards improvement. The main factors of traffic growth are the national economic development, in which the industrial structure is dominant. Different industrial structure of national economic will have different demands of the transport in quantity and quality. This proposal to lead a new path of industrialization necessarily requires to adjust the industrial structure strategically, to promote industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and to form an industry pattern in which high-tech industries as the leader, basic industries and manufacturing as the support, and the service comprehensive develop. Therefore, analysis of the impact about the industrial structure change on transport demand growth has important theoretical and practical significance.First, the research content and framework is presented on the basis of review about the research results at home and abroad. Second, related theories about the industrial restructuring and transport needs are reviewed, which can be used as theoretical basis of this study. Third, a complete decomposition model between transportation needs and factors is established. Different change direction of factors will have different affect on transportation needs. Under this, different kinds of complete decomposition model are established. Fourth, an empirical analysis about the affect of industrial structure on the transport needs is presented by using this complete decomposition model, which based on the large amounts of data consolidation of input-output table in 1987,1997 and 2007. The conclusions are valuable. Finally, the 2017 input-output table is projected, and by which a forecasting analysis about the affect of industrial structure on the transport needs is presented.

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