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Research on the Timing of Entering Hi-tech Industry Bases Based on Option Game Theory

Author: XuAiQin
Tutor: ZuoWenXiu
School: Xi'an University of Technology
Course: Business management
Keywords: Option Game High-tech Industrial Base Synergistic effect Crowding effect
CLC: F276.44
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 69
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The high-tech industries are the main pillars of economic development, but to invest in the industry not only require a longer investment cycle, the more need there is a lot of financial support, and the products and market uncertainty, high risk investment. So, choose the correct entry timing is critical to the success of the entrants. In this paper, on the basis of the option game theory, high-tech industrial base into the timing of the study. Especially when you consider the uncertainty and cost of irreversibility premise, included in the analytical framework for the different market structures crowding effects and synergies as well as synergies order. According to the domestic and international research into the timing, we found very little research into the timing of the high-tech industry base, the use of option game theory to study the problem of less based on the research questions of this article. Due to the diversity of the investment decision-making method, this paper details why the use of the option game theory to solve the high-tech industry base into the matter of timing, and based on the timing of the impact of high-tech industrial base into factors, including synergistic effect, crowding effect uncertainty into the irreversibility. On the basis of the above theory, the paper market is divided into three structures: a single entrant, the entrant with the tour, the upstream and downstream entrants, and analysis of the results of each case into the game equilibrium and a variety of balanced entry value function as well as the impact of factors play important roles in the timing of the entrants into. In order to be more intuitive description of the strategic interaction between the entrants, the papers also use MATLAB numerical simulation and analysis of the results of the strategic interaction between the entrants. Through this study, the following conclusions: first, by a single entrant into the timing analysis, we can see the high uncertainty and the time to enter into the cost will be postponed investors; through the same tour entrants timing analysis, after considering the uncertainty, irreversibility on the basis of the cost of crowding effect as the main influencing factors into account, and ultimately the formation of a three game equilibrium: preemption equilibrium, sequential equilibrium and at the same time equalizer in the first equilibrium, the crowding effect to accelerate the entry of the leader, and delayed the timing of the entry of the followers; sequential equilibrium, the leader entering the threshold has not been the impact of the crowding effect, crowding effect delayed the timing of the entry of the follower ; enter the equalizer at the same time, the crowding effect delay the entry of investors. Third, the analysis irreversibility In addition to the uncertainties and cost only by the synergistic effect of the Preparation of those who entered the entry timing, in consideration of the order of the basis of the synergistic effect obtained Raw entrants always prior to or simultaneously with the downstream entrants into the base, and eventually into the game between the two balanced: the sequential equilibrium and at the same time balancing. The sequential equilibrium postpone the synergistic effect of the timing of the upstream entrants enter, and accelerate the timing of downstream entrants enter. Enter the equalizer at the same time, the synergies of delayed entrants enter the timing. Fourth, analysis by both the synergies and congestion effects on downstream entrants to enter the timing, while also considering the order of the synergies, but entrants need to decide to enter the timing of the synergies of the size of the crowding effect of the interaction force formed three balanced: the preemption equilibrium and sequential equilibrium and enter the equalizer at the same time. Dominate when the crowding effect on downstream entrants have the power first to enter the base, formed preemption equilibrium; when synergies role dominate crowding effect in a secondary position, downstream entrants choose to wait as a follower to enter the base, forms a sequential equilibrium; each entry can be offset when the the crowding effect synergies interaction basic power are not the first to enter forms to enter the equalizer at the same time.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Enterprise economy > A variety of enterprise and economic > Joint enterprise economy > High-tech enterprises
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