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In this paper, empirical studies of China 's open-end fund market timing stock picking ability , to supplement and improve the academic course of study of the timing of China 's open-end fund stock picking ability , in reality, investors , regulatory authorities , fund management companies choose the stock status quo and made ??constructive suggestions . Paper selected from November 2003 to March 2008 , 35 open-end funds , respectively, through the TM model , HM model , CL model timing stock-picking ability of empirical research , based on its random disturbance ARCH test , profiling time series cluster impact timing stock picking ability . From a results point of view , on the three models are basically the same conclusion , the lack of China 's open-end fund market timing ability , but has some stock picking ability . The same time, this article innovative segment of the stock picking ability timing analysis period of sexual selection when the stock picking ability . In this paper, an empirical the TM model extension of the TM-δ model , confirmed the rise in the market stage , Chinese open-end funds have a certain elective time capacity , but in the market decline stage , its not only did not choose when the capacity , but also reflects a certain significant with negative timing ability . This means that the fund manager may exist in the market decline of the market miscalculated the transition so optimistic, may buy surplus loss selling reverse strategy in operation , thus increasing the risk of the fund portfolio system , and ultimately affect the Fund's performance . In addition, from the data model selection criteria , the fund manager of cognitive behavioral incentives of China 's open-end fund market timing stock picking ability theory to explain and put forward policy recommendations .
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