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Study on Interval-based Economic Evaluation Methods for Power Construction Projects

Author: HeLiZuo
Tutor: XiaoJun
School: Tianjin University
Course: Proceedings of the
Keywords: Power construction projects Uncertainty Economic Assessment Interval Net Present Value Dynamic investment recovery period Internal Rate of Return
CLC: F407.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 114
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Power construction projects are capital -intensive projects , investment in large-scale and long payback period , with the gradual deepening of the electricity market and power system reform , the increasing importance of economic factors in the decision-making power construction projects . As the market characteristics of important factors - uncertainty ( randomness of information , fuzzy , gray and unascertained ) and the risk of new challenges for the power construction project economic assessment , this article uses interval method deal with the problem of uncertainty in the economic evaluation of power construction projects , mainly to do the research as follows : ( 1 ) the establishment of the economic assessment model based intervals cash flow , the range of interest rates and uncertain life of uncertainty , derive three common economic assessment method net present value (NPV) method , the payback period (PT) method, internal rate of return (IRR) method , in determining the lifetime and uncertain life period under the conditions of the interval value formula and formula precise interval solution ; given the net present value of the interval (INPV) , the basic concepts and assessment criteria of the dynamic range of payback period (IPT) method and interval internal rate of return (IIRR) Act , as well as project risk calculation . ( 2 ) The combination of numerical examples to the three interval assessment methods in determining the conditions of life and uncertainties lifetime . The example given project feasibility results are consistent , but still there are some differences . Determine whether lifetime or the uncertainty of the project the IIRR calculated risk probability , followed is INPV Law IPT method risk smallest . Conservative policymakers in the order of priority using the method : a the IIRR law , INPV method , IPT Law ; bold decision-makers in the order of the method employed IPT method the INPV law , IIRR law . In summary, this paper, three interval economic assessment method could be used to deal with the uncertainty in the economic evaluation obtained Economic Assessment indicators range solution is an effective economic assessment methods for power construction projects .

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