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Cotton is an important cash crops, industry related degree. China has become the world's largest cotton producer and consumer of cotton annual production and consumption volume accounts for about a quarter of world production and consumption. Xinjiang is one of the country's oldest cotton-growing areas, has a long history of cotton growing, Xinjiang 86 counties (cities) in the perennial cotton planting of 63 counties (cities). According to statistics, in 2006 the output value of cotton (lint) accounted for 35.7% of the total agricultural output value, accounting for 50.88% of the output value of farming, accounting for 13.1% of GDP; Xinjiang farmers and herdsmen per capita net income of 20% cotton. Xinjiang cotton in the area, the total production, yield, adjusting the amount and rate of merchandise exports, per capita consumption of six ranks first in the country. Since the reform and opening up, China's cotton production has been in significant fluctuations, large interannual fluctuations, far beyond the normal range. Fluctuations (Fluctuation) turned out to be a physics noun refers to objects the repeated movement up and down the law. Fluctuation is introduced into economics refers to economic variables in the time series of changes in the process or state, fluctuations in cotton production in the present study, mainly refers to the actual change of the major inter-annual cotton output deviates from the normal production of the long-term trend. With the country's cotton production situation in Xinjiang's cotton production has been in significant fluctuations. Cotton prices spike, cotton output fluctuations, sell the Cotton difficult and buy cotton difficult alternately. Large fluctuations in cotton prices, production, supply and demand relationship of cotton producers, operators, consumers and the state finance adverse effects [1]. This paper uses the residual method of Xinjiang's cotton output in 1985-2006 analysis, the 1987-2005 average length of Xinjiang's cotton output fluctuations cycle about the conclusion of four years. In addition to the state and the autonomous region's cotton policy, factors affecting cotton production in Xinjiang, is also affected by the impact of the cotton acreage affected area, the total power of agricultural machinery and other factors. In other words, the scale of planting, meteorological factors, the degree of mechanization of agriculture is the most important factor affecting cotton production in Xinjiang. Therefore, the stability of Xinjiang cotton production policy recommendations: ⑴ establish a more open cotton circulation system; ⑵ to rational distribution cotton production, the appropriate compression cotton acreage, the path of high-yield high-quality low-cost; ⑶ vigorously strengthen the cotton investment in science and technology to improve cotton the technological level of production; ⑷ strengthen the cotton market supervision; ⑸ establish new mechanisms - early warning mechanism of Xinjiang cotton reserves.
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