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Gas field development optimization decision-making system

Author: MaYongChi
Tutor: LiuZhiBin
School: Southwest Petroleum Institute
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Gas field Development Plan Production allocation Optimization Decision Functional simulation Forecast Comprehensive Evaluation
CLC: F407.22
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 257
Quote: 2
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Abstract

This study is that the state-of-the-art management science and systems engineering methods and means for the gas field development planning and optimization decisions. To highlight the economic benefits, as the goal of efficient decision-making principles, systems, comprehensive analysis of the gas field to optimize production allocation process involved in all aspects of a set of methods to be innovative, integrated and overall optimization of higher performance , data acquisition for the shares of oil and gas fields affiliates, with its two units macro decision-making needs, forecasting, optimization, evaluation, decision-making in one of the theories and methods. Mainly for the following aspects: (1) on the basis of the existing prediction methods, research more efficient, more accurate prediction method to predict oil and gas development indicators from the BP neural network for the disadvantage to introduce ideological feedback to improve it, a better performance with a feedback loop BP neural network to forecast oil and gas development indicators; neural network at the same time easy to fall into local minima, the structure is difficult to determine and poor generalization ability the shortcomings of the introduction of the small sample size, nonlinear and high-dimensional support vector regression can be a good solution for the prediction of oil and gas development indicators; Finally, the combination forecasting function of fresh degree variable weight combination forecasting method to forecast results , to further improve the prediction accuracy. (2) the use of systems theory and control theory (feedback thought) to establish a more systematic optimization of production allocation model, to improve the overall optimization and the use of efficient PSO evolutionary algorithm model is solved in the analysis of the existing allocation of production optimization model, production optimization model and measures of structural optimization model based on, does not close its contact, one-to-one correspondence can not be accurately shortcomings, starting from the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the use of functional simulation for the establishment of the sub-yield and cost its influence factors the one-to-one relationship to the bottom-up approach to optimize human controllable factors (input), optimization of the two units of the breakdown of production and the breakdown of their costs through the establishment of a system simulator, and ultimately optimize global production, costs and profits. Optimized statistics based on different levels of optimization results can be obtained optimal allocation of production, optimal yield components and the optimal structure measures, and one-to-one correspondence between each other. Five years to optimize production allocation model to solve the breakdown of production within five years of Homologous relationship with a feedback loop system simulator, in order to achieve a bottom-up optimization. The solution of the model for the model contains implicit function of this feature, the use of simple and efficient PSO evolutionary algorithm for the solution of the problem, in which the model is to consider the algorithm based on established. (3) the use of the latest comprehensive evaluation method to optimize the decision-making on the gas field development plan integrated subjective and objective method combined with the conclusion of the comprehensive evaluation methods at home and abroad and the latest progress, information theory is proposed based on a linear combination of the entropy weighting method to a comprehensive evaluation of the gas field development plan. (4) Example analysis using theories and methods of research optimize production allocation and the actual detection of a gas field part of the block, on a better foundation for the other blocks of the gas field development planning, and achieved significant economic benefits.

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