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Research on the Exchange Rate Target Zone of RMB

Author: OuYuanMing
Tutor: WangShaoPing
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Exchange rate target zone Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Cointegration Exchange rate misalignment HP filter Impulse response function
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 166
Quote: 2
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Abstract


The choice of exchange rate regime has been a topic of debate in the field of international financial , especially since the 1990s , the emerging economies have occurred to the financial crisis , academia this problem there are many discussions . The conclusion of the same parties , but acknowledged that the pegged exchange rate system in the case of a highly developed international capital flows, there is definitely a problem . Continue to accelerate the pace of China 's reform and opening up , and often project station to the fourth position in the world , the opening up of the capital account is a general trend , the RMB exchange rate nominally based on supply and demand in the market -based , managed floating exchange rate regime , but \\In this case , the exchange rate system , where to go to become the focus of discussion . This paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the exchange rate system , in accordance with the actual situation in China and the world trend of the exchange rate regime reform , the direction of the exchange rate system reform - the establishment of the RMB exchange rate target zone . Using behavioral equilibrium exchange rate of RMB equilibrium exchange rate , taking into account the important impact of capital projects , the nominal exchange rate as the basis of the equilibrium exchange rate . Cointegration analysis to confirm the selected economic fundamentals on the exchange rate is significant . And the use of HP filtering method extract variable long-term , trend -based cointegration relationship RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate . Exchange rate and nominal exchange rate misalignment is the norm , and the degree of exchange rate misalignment greatly improved since 2000 , without appreciation or depreciation of the nominal exchange rate . Combined with the impact of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System and the 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis on the national exchange rate , and the use of the impulse response function Technical Analysis cointegration variable exchange rate impact efforts , this paper presents the RMB exchange rate target zone should be set up to open a hard target and non Public soft target area , also discussed the central bank intervention on the exchange rate timing standard .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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