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The Study on Risk Evaluation of BOT Projects in China University

Author: WangXueJun
Tutor: MengFanSheng;WangZhongLan
School: Harbin Engineering University
Course: Project Management
Keywords: University BOT project Index system Risk evaluation model Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
CLC: G647
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 59
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the enrollment expansion and changes in school mode of China University, the developing pace of university changes fast Obviously, the demand for funds is growing, the debt crisis of university is more and more obvious. In the case of government rare investment, it is gradually used to build university infrastructure projects with BOT mode.Any project has risk. The BOT projects have more risks because they have the characters of large investment, long period, more participants, slowly recovery of funds, complex process. It has important significance to research risk evaluation of the BOT projects in China University.On the basis of analysis of the status quo at home and abroad, the paper analyses the characters, risk causes, risk identification process and methods of the BOT projects in China University. And from the perspective of the project company, it detailed analyses various risk factors of the BOT projects in China University, divides level, classifies scientifically and builds the risk evaluation index system of the BOT projects in China University in accordance with the principles of establishing risk evaluation index system.The analysis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method shows that it is very scientific and reasonable to evaluate the risk of the BOT project in China University with the method of two fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The paper constructs risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the BOT project in China University. It introduces in detail the application of AHP, the establishment of risk factors set, the establishment and amendment of the weight set, the establishment of evaluation set, the establishment of fuzzy evaluation matrix, one fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, two fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and treatment of evaluation results.By the BOT project of Binzhou University as an example, the paper evaluates fuzzy comprehensively the risks of the project company which participate the project. Through the calculation of the risk evaluation index weights, the calculation of fuzzy evaluation matrix, one fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, two fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, we can indicate the differences of the risk level, importance of various risk factor.we get a realistic evaluation result by an example project, it shows that the model is feasibility and applicability in practical projects.Finally, the paper proposes the measures of the management methods of risk assessment about the BOT projects in China University. We should constantly improve the overall environment of the risk assessment management and improve basic level of the risk assessment management to promote further the development of the risk assessment of the BOT projects in China University.

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